The UFC Vegas 121 card will feature twelve bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout between men’s bantamweight contenders Raul Rosas Jr. (pictured left) and Raoni Barcelos (pictured right). The co-main event will feature a matchup of two top-five women’s bantamweight contenders Norma “The Immortal” Dumont and Ailin Perez. The card will also feature the championships of The Ultimate Fighter competition.
A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.
Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Both their media ranking and Meta AI ranking are displayed. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).
Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.
The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.
Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!
UFC Vegas 121 (Rosas Jr vs. Barcelos) Previews – September 26, 2026
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
EDITOR’S NOTE: Jauregui has had a bad run lately, but is still a young force to be reckoned with in this division. Demopoulos is on a three-fight skid and her days of eking out decisions as an underdog may be at an end. The only question in my mind is whether Jauregui can get it done inside the distance.
John Castaneda vs. Alatengheili
EDITOR’S NOTE: Castaneda is a prolific finisher. His grappling ability will open up his striking enough to be a KO threat across all three rounds. He has enough tools to give Heili fits.
Montel Jackson vs. Ricky Simon
EDITOR’S NOTE: Simon is getting written off a bit here. He was recently a high level threat in this division. He’s dropped off a bit, but Jackson has been disappointing as of late as well. Ultimately, this fight is about whether someone can get a finish. Jackson will be better across three rounds, but Simon has the better finishing threat. Despite the disrespect of him being nearly a 2-to-1 underdog, Jackson feels only slightly like the better pick.
Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell
EDITOR’S NOTE: BACK UP THE TRUCK (Part 1)! These are two submission specialists. Typically in bouts like that, the fight ends up staying on the feet. In that instance, Brener has the edge in nearly all of the striking metrics we analyzed. This is important, given Harrell’s paltry 29 percent striking defense. Brener also has as many submission wins as Harrell has wins in his career. That experience also ought to serve him well in the ground game. The Brazilian is a very live underdog.
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Christian Edwards
EDITOR’S NOTE: Bellato is bringing power and versatility to the table that Edwards simply hasn’t shown in his UFC run thus far. A KO here seems reasonably safe, but at this weight class, anything can happen.
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Robert Bryczek
EDITOR’S NOTE: Vieira is a feast or famine kind of guy. If he doesn’t win by submission, he usually doesn’t win. Bryczek, for his part, usually needs a KO to get it done. The tiebreaker seems to be who can win if it goes the distance. Bryczek has five times as many wins by decision as Vieira (only one). Given Bryczek has only been submitted once in his career, it’ll be a tall task for Vieira to get this done.
Rinya Nakamura vs. Brady Hiestand (Featured Prelim)
EDITOR’S NOTE: Nakamura is a sleeper in the bantamweight division. Very talented on the feet and boasts a perfect 100 percent takedown defense. If he wants to get it to the ground, he’s landing takedowns at over an 80 percent success rate. That’s too much for Hiestand to be able to withstand if he doesn’t get a very quick KO.
Tina Black vs. Melissa Amaya (TUF Finale)
EDITOR’S NOTE: Amaya is the more active grappler of the two. Black is a better striker. Visually, Black is the stronger of the two. Between two relatively unknown quantities, Black feels like the safer bet because of her versatility.
Ilimbek Akylbek vs Mahammadali Osmanli (TUF Finale)
EDITOR’S NOTE: This is a very similar breakdown to the Brener-Harrell fight. Two submission artists begs the question of who is better on the feet. Osmanli has that distinction locked down. Akylbek has never won by KO in his career, meanwhile all of his losses have been by KO. He needs the fight on the ground, which might be fine for Osmanli. If it stays upright, the Azerbaijani fighter is the better man clearly.
Sedrique Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez
EDITOR’S NOTE: Dumas is tempting, given Hernandez is taking this on very short notice. However, he just fought eleven days ago and will be in fighting shape. Dumas, as you can see in the graphic, is the lowest rated middleweight in the UFC, according to CC. If ever there were a way to make your debut on short notice, this is the circumstance for Hernandez. It might be a risky bet, but he ought to be the favorite here.
Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez (Co-Main Event)
EDITOR’S NOTE: BACK UP THE TRUCK (Pt. 2)! I would not have forgiven myself if this pick was not also a “back up the truck” pick (if you don’t know why, ask Laura Sanko). Long-time Cage Calculus readers know that this editor thinks Dumont is the best striker in the women’s bantamweight division (a title she may relinquish if Amanda Nunes makes a sustained return). Dumont’s only flaw is that she is often too hesitant to let her hands go. But, when she does, she is the same fighter who mauled Irene Aldana at Noche UFC a while back. Dumont’s narrow loss to Joselyne Edwards ought to have been the wake-up call she needs about being more active. Perez will need to get a clinch or a takedown, because she cannot strike with Dumont. This will also be a sizable step up in competition for Perez, despite her recent success. Dumont should take this one home.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos (Main Event)
EDITOR’S NOTE: Statistically, these men are very close. Where they are not close is age. Rosas will come in a full 18 years younger than Barcelos. That’s the kind of gap that makes a difference at 135 pounds, where the speed is a real factor. Barcelos is not a KO threat anymore and Rosas may have the better ground game of the two. It’ll be a sneaky fun fight (maybe not a great headliner matchup), and Rosas should take home a win in a “passing the torch” kind of moment for two contenders at very different stages of their career.
Picture Credit: UFC
