The UFC Paris card will feature fourteen bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout between lightweight contender Dan “Hangman” Hooker (pictured left) the Guadeloupean-Moroccan prospect and UFC newcomer Salahdine Parnasse (pictured right).
A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.
Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Both their media ranking and Meta AI ranking are displayed. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).
Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.
The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.
Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!
UFC Paris (Hooker vs. Parnasse) Previews – September 5, 2026
Delphine Benouaich vs. Sofia Montenegro
EDITOR’S NOTE: This bout is a bit of a crapshoot. I give Montenegro the slight edge because of her sizable reach advantage and because Benouaich is too often reliant on getting a knockout to win.
Luis Felipe Dias vs. Matthieu Duclos
EDITOR’S NOTE: Dias is one of the more versatile fighters on the roster. Of his 17 pro wins, 16 have been finishes. They are split evenly with eight submissions and eight knockouts. He has two many ways to win. That’s a tall task for a guy like Duclos making his UFC debut, even if it is in front of a home crowd.
Nora Cornolle vs. Klaudia Sygula
EDITOR’S NOTE: BACK UP THE TRUCK! As much as I hesitate to opine overconfidently on a women’s fight on the prelims, this line made very little sense to me when I saw it. Sygula is bigger, the more active striker and has better takedown numbers to boot. Add to that the fact that Cornolle is getting up there in age, the facts of the case are telling me Sygula should be a favorite here. And yet the oddsmakers and CC+ disagree. We’ll see tomorrow!
Fabia Sintes vs. Michael Aljarouj
EDITOR’S NOTE: Another crapshoot between two fighters making debuts. I’ll take Aljarouj’s size and striking over Sintes’ more active takedown game.
Nathaniel Wood vs. Pavel Andrusca
EDITOR’S NOTE: This should be the easiest fight to call. Wood is on a four-fight win streak, including a win over Jose Delgado, who is set to headline Noche UFC later this month. He ought to have a number next to his name in the featherweight division. Andrusca is a fun undefeated prospect, but taking a guy like Wood on short notice in his UFC debut is a tall task.
Oumar Sy vs. Modestas Bukauskas
EDITOR’S NOTE: Sy got a little “fraud checked” after getting submitted by Ion Cutelaba his last time out. Sy is not the red hot prospect people thought he might be. However, Bukauskas has not exactly been lighting it up out there either. He’s been a part of some lackluster decisions and seems lost once an opponent presses the pace. That’s the recipe for Sy to get back on track.
Jack Jenkins vs. Sean Woodson
EDITOR’S NOTE: Spann seems to be finding a home at heavyweight lately. However, if you look at his opponents, it’s a lot of lower level guys. Pinto is a huge step up in ability at this weight class. Pinto should be able to use his weight to mitigate Spann’s biggest weapon (his submission threat) and attack a knockout.
Morgan Charriere vs. Felipe Lima (Featured Prelim)
EDITOR’S NOTE: Lima is a grade A stud and Charriere has been remarkably inconsistent for a guy with this much hype behind him. Expect both trends to hold firm Saturday night in Paris.
Losene Keita vs. Muhammad Naimov
EDITOR’S NOTE: Keita is a dangerous KO threat. While he has failed to live up to the hype thus far, Naimov has also fallen short of expectations. Naimov doesn’t quite have the top tier striking or submission ability to comfortably get Keita out of there early or disrupt the KO power. That will be a problem for him.
Kurtis Campbell vs. Trevor Peek
EDITOR’S NOTE: Campbell is the better fighter on paper almost everywhere. He’s the safe bet. However, Peek has eight of his nine wins by KO. He will make it a dogfight if he falls behind. We’ve never seen Campbell take that kind of punishment. The question is whether he can withstand an unpredictable onslaught if the fight stops being clean. He should be able to, but Peek always has the nuclear option that can throw a wrench in anyone’s oddsmaking.
Punahele Soriano vs. Daniil Donchenko
EDITOR’S NOTE: Soriano’s talented for sure and is always alive in fights. However, Donchenko is statistically the better fighter in all facets.
Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
EDITOR’S NOTE: I thought about backing up the truck here instead. But, Michael Page is one of the most frustrating fighters to watch. His supposedly legendary power is hyped up to no end as he fights to boring decision after boring decision. Ian Machado Garry showed that wrestling is a weakness for Page. Ruziboev has to trust he can avoid getting knocked out and rush to find the takedown, relying on his superior wrestling and grappling to make Page uncomfortable. I think he can do it, but Page seems to find away to just stay away from his opponents just enough to eek out a win, so no trucks here. But, have some degree of faith in the Uzbek underdog.
Fares Ziam vs. Axel Sola (Co-Main Event)
EDITOR’S NOTE: These fighters are so similar statistically, that the CC Rating may have been the only thing that tipped Ziam over the edge in the CC+ projection. I also give Ziam the edge just for having more experience against higher level guys in this division.
Salahdine Parnasse vs. Dan Hooker (Main Event)
EDITOR’S NOTE: Parnasse (with the possible exception of Usman Nurmagomedov) is regarded as the best fighter outside of the UFC. Now, he steps up to the big show to back up the talk. He is very versatile, being able to secure finishes from anywhere. Hooker is a good test and, I think is not getting enough credit here. After Hooker staved off Mateusz Gamrot’s wrestling, there should be some degree of respect for his ability to handle a guy like Parnasse. Hooker will be the better striker, but Parnasse’s relentlessness getting to the ground may prove to be too much over five rounds. After all the damage he’s taken, does Hooker still command the same KO power he used to?
Picture Credit: UFC
