The UFC Shanghai card will feature thirteen bouts, as well as two UFC sanctioned bouts taking place the night before, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout between bantamweight contenders Umar Nurmagomedov (pictured center left) and Song Yadong (pictured center right). The co-main event will be between women’s strawweight contenders Yan Xiaonan (pictured far left) and Denise Gomes (pictured far right).

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Both their media ranking and Meta AI ranking are displayed. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Shanghai (Nurmagomedov vs. Song) Previews – August 29, 2026

Yilizhati Maimaitijiang vs. Tre’ston Vines (Road to UFC Co-Main Event)

EDITOR’S NOTE: The only hard evidence we have on either of these men is Vines’ lackluster career thus far in the UFC. Maimaitijiang will come in with the home crowd on his side. It may take hime a bit to adjust, but once he makes that adjustment, he should be fine in the later rounds.

Darrius Flowers vs. Hayisaer Maheshate (Road to UFC Main Event)

EDITOR’S NOTE: Flowers’ propensity to get submitted (six of his eight pro losses are by submission) will mean he’ll push to keep this standing. Unfortunately for him, Maheshate probably has the edge on the feet as well. CC+ gives the edge to Flowers because of Maheshate’s lack of offensive wrestling. However, the ground game shouldn’t play a factor in this one, tipping the scales back.

Meng Ding vs. Cam Nelson

EDITOR’S NOTE: Ding has a wealth of experience and 28 of his 35 wins are by KO. That is a lot to overcome for a guy with only eight pro fights and making his UFC debut. Nelson has to get it to the ground and chase a submission. Given his narrow path to victory, lean with Ding to get it done.

Jingnan Xiong vs. Julia Polastri

EDITOR’S NOTE: Xiong is pretty accomplished on the feet, but has not had answers for fighters who try to take her down. Given Polastri’s prowess in the offensive wrestling game, Xiong should end up on her back sooner rather than later. Once there, it’s no guarantee she finds her way back up.

Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago

EDITOR’S NOTE: Santiago makes his UFC debut on short notice against a fighter with far more experience in the grappling department. Santiago will have to rely on his superb stand-up game. However, Lui is also adept at getting the KO and will have a sizable reach advantage to mitigate Santiago’s striking.

Long Xiao vs. Francesco Nuozzi

EDITOR’S NOTE: Nuozzi has the statistical edge in most of the striking departments. Xiao’s edge comes from his grappling. However, Xiao is averaging less than a single takedown per 15 minutes during his UFC career. That won’t be enough to overcome. His only hope is that Nuozzi gets the debut jitters against a crowd that’ll be favorable for Xiao. However, on the merits, Nuozzi should be the pick here.

Jack Jenkins vs. Sean Woodson

EDITOR’S NOTE: BACK UP THE TRUCK! A ten-inch reach advantage is seldom overcome. Woodson is so long for this division. His striking is very on point and his length makes it hard to get him to the ground. He should be a larger favorite than this. Jenkins is talented, but the physicality of Woodson will be too much.

Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas

EDITOR’S NOTE: Tsuruya is simply better everywhere. If you’re looking for a prop bet, Tsuruya by submission is currently +115. Not a bad bet, considering Tsuruya aggressively pursues takedowns, has five submission wins, and Borjas has never won by submission in his career. That’s the clearest of the many edges Tsuruya has.

Andre Lima vs. Namsrai Batbayar (Featured Prelim)

EDITOR’S NOTE: Lima may forever be the guy who got bitten in his UFC debut. However, he’s strung together a solid 4-1 UFC run, spoiled only by the aforementioned Borjas (who missed weight by three pounds in that one). Batbayar is making his UFC debut and, while his stats show promise, this is a very tough opening test for the Mongolian newcomer.

Bilal Hassan vs. Nilson Rojas

EDITOR’S NOTE: Hassan by KO is pretty predictable here. Both fighters have similar approaches to the game. Hassan is longer, faster, and produces more volume. Plain and simple.

Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs. Ce Liu

EDITOR’S NOTE: Don’t let Liu’s sparse record fool you. He has a long championship pedigree on the kickboxing circuit. Now he brings his talents to the UFC. While he may eventually struggle with takedowns, Rodrigues isn’t the guy to present that challenge. He is also a standup fighter who has only ever won or lost by KO. This fight will not go the distance.

Alex Perez vs. Su Mudaerji

EDITOR’S NOTE: This line confuses me a bit. Perez has been feast or famine in this division, having been finished in devastating fashion, but also rising to a title fight once upon a time. Su is a talented, rangy fighter, but he has not fought the level of competition Perez has, and hasn’t demonstrated he’s a sure thing. I think Perez’s experience will let him figure this one out, as Su has not secured a finish since November 2020.

Aori Qileng vs. Kai Asakura

EDITOR’S NOTE: CC+ likes Qileng because of Asakura’s underwhelming entry into the UFC. Asakura struggled with submission threats at flyweight, but Qileng does not present any such threat. Asakura has a new home at bantamweight and he should demonstrate the striking prowess that made him a force to be reckoned with.

Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes (Co-Main Event)

EDITOR’S NOTE: Yan is super talented and holds a win over the current strawweight champion, Mackenzie Dern. However, she’s getting older and has demonstrated clear holes in her takedown defense lately. Gomes isn’t exactly a pro wrestler, but she is aggressive in all aspects of the game. She also has a reach advantage that will serve her well in the striking game if she has to. Gomes is a live underdog here.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong (Main Event)

EDITOR’S NOTE: Both men are trying to stave off injustice surrounding Sean O’Malley. Song is coming off a controversial decision loss to O’Malley that may have derailed his title shot hopes. Nurmagomedov, for his part, is hoping a win here will secure him the next shot at the bantamweight belt. However, he likely needs a convincing finish to leapfrog O’Malley, who would seem to be the favorite, especially if Petr Yan successfully defends. At any rate, Nurmagomedov’s wrestling and submission ability are legendary, and his striking is top tier as well. Song will struggle to find vulnerabilities.

Picture Credit: UFC