The UFC Sacramento card will feature thirteen bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout between middleweight contenders Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez (pictured left) and Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues (pictured right).

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Both their media ranking and Meta AI ranking are displayed. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Sacramento (Hernandez vs. Rodrigues) Previews – August 22, 2026

Shanelle Dyer vs. Elise Reed

EDITOR’S NOTE: Reed has been middling thus far in her UFC career. Dyer seems destined for the top 15 at some point soon. Reed is merely a stepping stone. This one likely gets done by TKO.

Jackson McVey vs. Wes Schultz

EDITOR’S NOTE: This is a very live underdog. McVey has never once successfully defended a takedown in his career. Add to that the fact that two-thirds of McVey’s pro losses are by submission (and two-thirds of Schultz’s pro wins are by submission), and this starts to feel like a mismatch. McVey has the decided edge on the feet, but it only takes one takedown to end that advantage. I say bank on it.

Gauge Young vs. Stan Dorsanvail

EDITOR’S NOTE: Dorsanvail’s stats are good, but he’s such an unknown quantity otherwise making his UFC debut here. He’s also doing so on short notice. Young’s experience and cardio should be enough to get him through.

Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse

EDITOR’S NOTE: Barbosa by KO. That’s it. That’s the note.

Nasrat Haqparast vs. Chris Padilla

EDITOR’S NOTE: Skillwise, I’d give Haqparast the edge here. However, his last few fights have been absolute wars, and we don’t know how he’s going to come back after getting slept cold by Quillan Salkilld his last time out. Padilla will oblige a war, and does not have the damage on his chin that the Afghan does. I need to see Haqparast come back strong after the Salkilld KO before I trust him to beat a guy like Padilla.

Shamil Gaziev vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu

EDITOR’S NOTE: Back up the truck! Gaziev has been KO’d in his last two fights. He’s not providing enough of a threat to opponents. Nzechukwu is a former light heavyweight, so will have the speed advantage in this one. He will also have a three-inch reach advantage. Gaziev’s only hope is to get Nzechukwu up on the cage and win a boring dirty boxing match. That’s too narrow a path to victory to feel safe picking him.

Jamall Emmers vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featured Prelim)

EDITOR’S NOTE: Emmers has to wrestle early and often. Douglas is one of the more precise strikers out there and he does so at incredible volume. If Emmers is unable to secure frequent takedowns, it’s not going to be a fun night for him. That’s more or less how I see this one going, though.

Anthony Wint vs. Terrance Chatman

EDITOR’S NOTE: Wint is a highly touted DWCS prospect. This is his celebratory debut party. Chatman does not pose enough of a threat to disrupt it.

Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves

EDITOR’S NOTE: Judice is surprisingly dangerous on the feet for a flyweight. Chaves simply does not have the power to match, or the submission threat to at least make Judice respect the grappling. This is going to be won on the feet. The only question is whether Judice gets it done inside the distance or not.

MarQuel Mederos vs. Mason Jones

EDITOR’S NOTE: Mederos shouldn’t be this heavy an underdog. He’s got a very good striking skill set that make him a problem for most anyone in the division. However, Jones’ wrestling prowess will be the x factor in this one. He’s very adept at scoring the takedown, with high accuracy in that department. All he needs is one to bank a round.

Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze

EDITOR’S NOTE: Both men are middleweights moving up, so the usual size questions are not there in a matchup like this. De Ridder is long enough to mitigate Dolidze’s small striking advantage, and is good enough in the ground game to wear Dolidze down. The only hope for Dolidze is to cause enough of an issue to wear de Ridder’s cardio down over the course of the fight. Won’t be easy in a three-round fight, though.

Sergehi Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino (Co-Main Event)

EDITOR’S NOTE: Spivac will have the size and wrestling advantage. But, will he be able to do anything about it. This is very similar to the Gaziev-Nzechukwu fight in that regard. The same theory of the case applies here. The quicker man with better striking and cardio will get it done.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Main Event)

EDITOR’S NOTE: Hernandez’s cardio is a weapon unto itself. Sean Strickland humbled him in the striking department, but that may show it takes a champion to take down Hernandez. Rodrigues does not have striking on that level and has shown to gas out in his only other main event fight. That certainly won’t fly in a five-round fight against Hernandez. Rodrigues needs a big shot early and Hernandez is smart enough to steer clear.

Picture Credit: UFC