The UFC 329 card will feature fourteen bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout between former featherweight champion Max Holloway (pictured right) and former two-division champion, Conor McGregor. The co-main event will be a lightweight bout between Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett and Benoit Saint-Denis.

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Both their media ranking and Meta AI ranking are displayed. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 329 (McGregor vs. Holloway 2) Previews – July 11, 2026

Cody Durden vs. Alessandro Costa

Editor’s Note: Durden has a big advantage in the offensive wrestling statistics. That’s what’s keeping his CC+ projection closer than the traditional Cage Calculus win probability. However, Durden has dropped five of his ten career losses by submission. Costa, on the other hand, has six submissions to his name and has never lost by submission in his pro career. Durden may play to avoid that, but it would take away his primary path to victory.

Ryan Gandra vs. Zach Reese

Editor’s Note: Gandra’s a hard hitting, high volume striker. His impressive power is what’s made him the betting favorite. However, Reese comes in as the favorite in both of Cage Calculus’ models. He has a solid three-inch reach advantage, which will mitigate some of Gandra’s striking potential. He’s faced higher caliber opposition in his UFC career than Gandra has. And, perhaps most importantly, Reese will have a decisive edge in wrestling numbers. If Gandra stays at distance, Reese can use his reach to pick him apart. If he gets close, he has to respect the threat of the takedown or end up on his back. Reese is a live underdog early in the night.

Farid Basharat vs. John Garza

Editor’s Note: Basharat is a borderline top ten bantamweight in the world right now. Garza, on the other hand, is taking this bout on very short notice to make his UFC debut. CC+ giving this fight a 93-7 split should tell you all you need to know. No need to overthink this one.

Damian Pinas vs. Cesar Almeida

Editor’s Note: Don’t expect any takedowns in this fight. These are both power punchers. In that department, the Aruban, Pinas, has the edge on almost all fronts. He strikes with way more volume, has the higher career KO percentage, and has a hefty five-inch reach advantage. Pinas by KO is one of the safer bets on this card.

Tracy Cortez vs. Cong Wang

Editor’s Note: Cortez needs to shoot for takedowns early and often. She will not outstrike Wang. However, she is the more experienced fighter and the better wrestler. This fight will come down to whether Cortez is able to execute this strategy. This fight could easily go two ways, but I’m banking on Cortez’s experience to help her see this through to a tight decision win.

Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley

Editor’s Note: Riley gets dinged in the CC+ algorithm for not having good offensive wrestling numbers and a paltry 37 percent takedown defense. However, he is going to be the faster man who is much better at avoiding the finish. Being the better wrestler will keep Kamaka in the fight, but there comes a point where talent can carry a fighter over the edge. Expect Riley to pull this one out. However, his skill set may not soon transfer to success in the upper echelons of this division.

Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yanez

Editor’s Note: The Cody Garbrandt of yesteryear is long gone. While the traditional CC model respects his championship pedigree, the tale of the tape tells a different story. Yanez is the type of young fighter with high level experience who will welcome the fire fight Garbrandt will try to create. That will likely end with Garbrandt down on the canvas, needing to be saved by the referee. It would be nice to see Cody “No Love” return to form, but nothing in the recent past has given us any indication he’s still the same fighter he was.

Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison

Editor’s Note: Steveson will be tested in the heavyweight division in the same way Bo Nickal was tested against Reinier de Ridder at middleweight. Both are accomplished wrestlers whose potential in all facets remains to be seen. However, Ellison is not that test. At 1491.4, he is the second-lowest rated fighter in the division. This is a good proving ground for Steveson to build confidence and skill at the highest level.

Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Featured Prelim)

Editor’s Note: BACK UP THE TRUCK (Part 1)! Whittaker is making his light heavyweight debut in this match. When he started his UFC career, he was a welterweight. Krylov, on the other hand, started his MMA career as a heavyweight, before dropping down to light heavyweight, where he’s made his home for years now. A staggering 29 of Krylov’s 31 career wins are by finish (16 submissions, 13 KOs). Whittaker excels when he can pick someone apart on the feet. We’ve seen him struggle against fighters with a longer reach (see: Adesanya, Israel). Krylov has a three-inch reach advantage, will be the bigger man, and will be the bigger threat in the wrestling department. This is a bad matchup for “Bobby Knuckles” to come up to light heavyweight. Krylov is a good looking underdog here.

King Green vs. Terrance McKinney

Editor’s Note: Don’t expect this one to last long. In 26 pro fights, McKinney has still yet to see a judge’s scorecard. Despite approaching 40, Green has shown he can hang with the best of the division, being ranked until not too long ago. McKinney is often careless chasing a finish and Green is too experienced and too polished in multiple facets of the game to get caught. Expect him to find the knockout early.

Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh

Editor’s Note: I’ve been burned trusting Royval before. However, this is a man who’s beaten the likes of Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira. He took the champion Josh Van to deep waters on the feet. Being a +180 underdog in this spot feels disrespectful. Kavanagh is coming off a big win against Brandon Moreno on short notice after Asu Almabayev dropped out. However, that win has propelled Kavanagh to levels of hype he hasn’t quite earned yet. This will be a big test. While I’m not confident enough in Royval to back up the truck, he feels like a good value as an underdog who should be a slight favorite.

Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista

Editor’s Note: This is a fascinating stylistic matchup. Both men are very versatile and very precise on the feet. This honestly might come down to Sandhagen having the extra KO power and a one-inch reach advantage. Sandhagen showed against Umar Nurmagomedov that his scramble ability will mitigate a wrestler and grappler like Bautista. If Bautista wants to have a chance, he’s going to have to do work from the clinch. Easier said than done against a guy like Sandhagen.

Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett (Co-Main Event)

Editor’s Note: BACK UP THE TRUCK (Part 2)! Anyone who watched the Saint-Denis fight against Dustin Poirier knows Saint-Denis has a nasty habit of giving his neck up on takedowns. Pimblett is far too good a submission artist to let that opportunity pass him by. If Saint-Denis wants to keep it on the feet, that’s a whole different ball game. Pimblett has good size for this division and has shown he’s able to brawl with the best of them. Outside of Saint-Denis landing one knockout blow, I don’t see how he outdoes Pimblett here.

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway (Main Event)

Editor’s Note: It would be good for the sport to have Conor McGregor competing again at a high level. The truth is, we have no idea what version of McGregor will step into that cage, because he hasn’t fought in five years. His last win came in January of 2020, against a Donald Cerrone who would never win inside the octagon after that point. We know McGregor has devastating power in his hands. We also know he fades fast if he doesn’t get the job done in the first two rounds. Holloway is a master at volume striking and cardio. He can afford to play the long game and, with the extra weight on, will be able to have better stamina and more power behind his punches. It just doesn’t seem like a good matchup for McGregor coming off a long hiatus.

Picture Credit: UFC