The UFC 327 card will feature twelve bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout for the vacant light heavyweight title. Facing off will be former champion, Jiri Prochazka (pictured left) of Czechia and New Zealand’s Carlos Ulberg. In the co-main, former middleweight title challenger Paulo Costa comes up to light heavyweight to take on the undefeated Kabardian contender, Azamat Murzakanov.

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 327 (Prochazka vs. Ulberg) Previews – April 11, 2026

Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado

Editor’s Note: Prado has all the talent in the world, having finished every single one of his wins (half by submission, half by KO). However, he’s a man without a weight class. He’s too big to consistently make 155 pounds, but is a bit too small to be a legit contender at 170. That being said, his ceiling should certainly be higher than Radtke, who is twelve years Prado’s senior.

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque

Editor’s Note: I have to be careful, starting out with two straight upset picks. However, I think anybody who confidently tells you they know how this fight will play out is lying to you. Both men seemingly had all the momentum in the world at one point in their careers. Now, they’ve each run into tough stretches and have fallen out of the rankings altogether. Luque’s coming up a weight class for this one. Nobody knows which version of these men are gonna come out of the tunnel. However, Luque’s reach advantage and superior ground game ought to give him more avenues to win. Gastelum is the more polished striker, so Luque has to be very careful to avoid getting clipped. If he does that, he should be able to get the win.

MarQuel Mederos vs. Chris Padilla

Editor’s Note: These two are even just about everywhere except for reach and wrestling. Padilla has the five-inch reach advantage, and Mederos has never attempted a takedown in his UFC career. Given the evenness everywhere else, it’s safe to give Padilla the edge in this bout.

Tatiana Suarez vs. Lupita Godinez

Editor’s Note: BACK UP THE TRUCK (Part 1)! Suarez may have been dominated in her title bout with Zhang Weili, but she is still a top tier strawweight when healthy. She strikes with 60 percent accuracy and is one of the best wrestlers in the division. Godinez’s only path to victory would be through clinch boxing up close. However, given Suarez’s prowess on the ground, it’ll be tricky for Gidniez to get close enough to overcome her five-inch dearth in reach. Hard to see any way Godinez gets the win here, as talented as she is. It’s genuinely surprising to see the official odds this close.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics

Editor’s Note: This is a matchup that pits an elite wrestler (Gamrot) against an exciting, super-high-volume striker (Ribovics). In the end, the wrestler typically wins these if it goes beyond a couple of minutes. Gamrot has the high-level experience to weather the storms Ribovics will bring his way early on.

Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown

Editor’s Note: This fight should yield a bonus of some sort. A couple of very long welterweights with power in their hands. The difference maker ought to be Holland’s submission threat, which might keep Brown a little more honest on his feet than he’d like to be. If he’s not, he’ll get taken down. If he over commits, Holland can make him pay with a KO blow. The same dynamic isn’t necessarily true the other way around.

Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featured Prelim)

Editor’s Note: This fight is closer than either the oddsmakers or the traditional CC Ratings have it right now. Pico is still largely an unknown quantity. He was a hot prospect coming out of Bellator. However, he has no title fight experience. Pitbull, on the other hand, is a multi-weight class Bellator champ. Now, they finally meet in the UFC. Pitbull may be silghtly past his prime at this point. Pico may be overhyped, but Pitbull will not present the same threats that undid him against Lerone Murphy last year.

Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr

Editor’s Note: Call me what you like, but Swanson should have retired after his last bout. It’s now been almost a year-and-a-half since he last fought, and time is not on his side. Pushing 43 years old in the featherweight division is tough work. Landwehr will be coming forward from the start. Ultimately, this comes down to whose chin you trust to hold up better. I trust Nate The Train’s more.

Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker

Editor’s Note: BACK UP THE TRUCK (Part 2)! Reyes has shown to be a little chinny as of late. However, Walker is not a volume striker. He waits to land the big one. Both men are primarily counter punchers. That should lead to a slower, more technical fight, which will benefit Reyes, over the unpredictable wildman, Walker. Walker has a tendency to get frustrated and overcommit, which would play right into Reyes’ style.

Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit

Editor’s Note: This is a prime example of the old adage, “There are levels to this game.” Hokit is very talented in multiple facets. However, he’s not yet faced a guy who’s been a mainstay of the heavyweight top five yet. We’re going to find out what Hokit is made of real soon. Given Blaydes weighed in 28 pounds heavier and has a seven-inch reach advantage, it’s going to be VERY difficult for Hokit to impose his will the way he has thus far.

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paulo Costa (Co-Main Event)

Editor’s Note: Murzakanov is one of the most crisp strikers in the UFC right now. And, he’s very light on his feet for someone in this weight class. He is a bit undersized, but given that Costa is coming up from middleweight, he actually won’t be as at much of a disadvantage in that department as he is normally. Costa needs to be aggressive to have a chance. We saw in the Strickland fight that he’s not going to pick anybody apart in a technical battle. However, Murzakanov’s counter striking will pay dividends en route to a win here.

Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulber (Title Fight Main Event)

Picture Credit: UFC