The UFC Houston card will feature fourteen bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout between former middleweight champion Sean Strickland (pictured left) and middleweight contender Anthony Hernandez (pictured right).

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Houston (Strickland vs. Hernandez) Previews – February 21, 2026

Carli Judice vs. Julianna Miller

Editor’s Note: There’s a reason the odds are as spread out as they are. Judice is a high-volume striker and has all of her wins coming by way of KO. Miller has a very meager 36 percent striking defense. She will be overwhelmed early and often by Judice’s superior striking. Miller is not nearly good enough with the offensive wrestling to close the gap.

Yadier del Valle vs. Jordan Leavitt

Editor’s Note: Both fighters have similar styles. However, Del Valle’s stats are simply better everywhere. He is a higher volume striker with better accuracy, and he is more efficient with takedowns. There’s not one clear area where Leavitt is better.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Phil Rowe

Editor’s Note: Rowe’s a live underdog here. However, if the UFC newcomer, Lebosnoyani, can weather the early storm, he should be able to get in close and make Rowe uncomfortable in the clinch and with his submission threats. Rowe has never won a decision in his career. He may panic trying to get the finish, allowing Lebosnoyani some opportunities. We’ve seen it work before for Rowe, but it’s not a sustainable strategy.

Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Punahele Soriano

Editor’s Note: BACK UP THE TRUCK! I see Brahimaj as the Youssef Zalal of the welterweight division. He’s a nasty submission threat who is going under the radar because of some early adversity in his UFC career. However, he’s coming off of three straight finish wins (underdogs in all three). He’s as talented and dangerous as they come. Soriano’s only edge is in KO power, and Brahimaj has only been KO’d once in his career. This is a great spot for Brahimaj to really showcase his skillset.

Nora Cornolle vs. Joselyne Edwards

Editor’s Note: This is a ranked matchup, but not a terribly exciting one. Both fighters look for a KO blow that doesn’t typically come against higher tier UFC competition. Given Edwards’ size and length advantage, it should be easy work. But, nothing is ever straightforward in this division. That said, I wouldn’t be comfortable backing Cornolle here.

Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule

Editor’s Note: Coria is a wildly efficient fighter. He’s landed every takedown he’s attempted in the UFC. He also has an insanely high 78 percent striking defense. Combining that ability to make opponents miss and get inside with ease should wreak havoc on a guy like Gurule, who only has a 42 percent striking accuracy to begin with.

Ode’ Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris

Editor’s Note: I won’t give it all caps, but if you’re inclined to back up the truck twice in one night, Idiris is your guy. Osbourne is a chaotic fighter who’ll force the issue and uses his reach advantage to do it. However, Idiris is a very technical striker who’ll stay within himself. He can pick Osbourne apart en route to a decision, or catch him reaching as he gets increasingly frustrated.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Featured Prelim)

Editor’s Note: This fight will almost certainly take place on the feet. In that case, Njokuani is the more accurate striker (62 percent accuracy to Leal’s 50 percent). He is the better defender (57 percent defense vs. Leal’s 53 percent). He also has a significant six-inch reach advantage in this one. Leal’s only edge in the striking stats is his volume. Given the rest, Njokuani is a good underdog to look at.

Zach Reese vs. Michel Pereira

Editor’s Note: People are starting to figure out Pereira’s wildman act. As entertaining as his antics are, fighters who stay calm are increasingly able to weather the storm. Reese is coming into his own in the UFC. This would be a statement win, but one he’s capable of making with his skillset, which matches up well against Pereira.

Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell

Editor’s Note: This is an exciting matchup of undefeated fighters. It’d probably be more evenly matched if Harrell weren’t taking this fight on extremely short notice. Given Harrell’s relative lack of experience in national MMA promotions, it’s hard to be confident he can get this done under the circumstances.

Sergei Spivac vs. Ante Delija

Editor’s Note: Both fighters sling leather at roughly the same clip. Spivac, however, is much better at avoiding the shots coming at him. He’s also more effective at initiating successful wrestling exchanges if things aren’t going well on the feet. Delija is more a “live by the sword, die by the sword” type of guy. Spivac has more experience and more ways to win. He’s a very live underdog.

Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa

Editor’s Note: This is great matchmaking. Both men are quick and can hurt you in all sorts of ways. Ige has a bit more mileage on him, and Costa has really taken the time to develop thoughtfully as a prospect, who’s now ready to break into the top 15. He needs to avoid letting the moment get to him. If he fights his fight, he will have the edge. But, Ige has always been a tough out.

Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Co-Main Event)

Editor’s Note: This is a better matchup than people give it credit for. However, Neal has vastly more experience. He has high level striking and can use his four-inch reach advantage to make sure the fight happens on his terms. Medic will need to force the issue and put Neal on the back foot. But, with a guy like Neal, that could lead to the lights going out pretty quickly.

Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Main Event)

Editor’s Note: Strickland is actually a very tough matchup for Hernandez. He’s not going to succumb to a submission, the way many of Hernandez’s opponents have. Strickland is also legendary for his striking defense. He’s more in this than people realize. However, Hernandez should be able to weaponize his cardio, as well as his active wrestling to keep Strickland very passive in this fight. Hernandez will be able to put out enough offense to point his way to a decision win.

Picture Credit: UFC