The UFC 325 card will feature thirteen bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout for the featherweight championship between champion Alexander Volkanovski (pictured background) and the UFC’s #2 ranked contender, Diego Lopes (pictured foreground). The co-main event will be a lightweight bout between lightweights Dan Hooker and Benoit Saint-Denis.

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 325 (Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2) Previews – January 31, 2026

Sulangrangbo vs. Lawrence Lui (Road to UFC Bantamweight Final)

Editor’s Note: Sulangrangbo has not landed one takedown in his last two fights. Lui, on the other hand, has landed an astonishing 4.13 takedowns per 15 minutes over his last two fights. Add to that the fact that these two have very similar striking numbers and Lui will come in with a sizable six-inch reach advantage, the underdog from Hong Kong is very live to start the night.

Sebastian Szalay vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (Road to UFC Featherweight Final)

Editor’s Note: This one is very close on paper. Neither man has done much grappling or wrestling lately. So, in a bout that will almost certainly be on the feet, Nakamura’s output is higher than Szalay and he will come in with a four-inch reach advantage. Another live dog early on.

Dom Mar Fan vs. Sang Uk Kim (Road to UFC Lightweight Final)

Editor’s Note: Johnson is a fan favorite of people who’ve been following this sport for a while. After reeling off two upsets, people are high on his prospects, even as he approaches 40. However, Hernandez seems to be hitting his stride and is more at home in this weight class. The odds for this fight started out around -300 for Hernandez. The enthusiasm behind Johnson have gotten them to where they are now, which makes Hernandez a pretty good steal at -115.

Kaan Ofli vs. Yizha

Editor’s Note: Both of these men are accomplished submission artists. However, Zha is far more willing to be the aggressor when it comes to wrestling. He should dictate how this fight goes down. Given Ofli’s failure to defend a single takedown thus far in the UFC, he’ll likely be relegated to trying to get a submission off his back. He’s capable of it, but it’s such a narrow path to victory. Zha should take this one handily.

Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliott

Editor’s Note: This is also really close on paper. Both men have similar stats and skillsets. I think the game changer will be Elliott’s ability to consistently win in the clinch situations. He also has more experience, which could pay off if fight IQ comes into play in this matchup of two men with similar styles.

Jacob Malkoun vs. Torrez Finney

Editor’s Note: Both men shoot an absurdly high number of takedowns. Typically, in matchups between wrestlers, they fight ends up on the feet. In theory, that should benefit Finney. However, Finney throws with such low volume that he may be relegated to looking for a knockout blow (that he’s more than capable of delivering). However, I see Malkoun pointing his way to a victory, so long as he avoids getting finished on the feet.

Cam Rowston vs. Cody Brundage

Editor’s Note: Brundage has shown grit in most of his UFC fights. However, he’s also shown an ability to get finished. Rowston will be the bigger, longer man in the cage and has over half his wins by way of submission. Brundage’s advantage on the ground may well be nullified. There are just too few ways for Brundage to pull this one out, his toughness notwithstanding.

Junior Tafa vs. Billy Elekana (Featured Prelim)

Editor’s Note: Elekana has only ever lost by decision and by submission. Tafa has zero career wins by decision or submission. Tafa has only ever won by knockout. Elekana has never been knocked out in his pro career. Need I say more? This is a bad bad matchup for Tafa.

Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Editor’s Note: Mullarkey has a bad habit of getting KO’d and is taking this fight on short notice against a guy who’s scored first round KOs in two of his first three UFC bouts. Salkilld will use his wrestling as a threat to open up the striking and find another early KO in this one. Don’t overthink it.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira

Editor’s Note: It would be fun for Tuivasa to get back in the win column. But, this is not the fight for that. Teixeira is five inches taller and eight inches longer. Tuivasa is going to have to force the issue early and make the fight ugly. Getting inside range is going to be harder for a guy like Tuivasa, who showed the damage he’ll take when fighting a rangier guy in the past. Bet with your head, not your heart.

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy

Editor’s Note: BACK UP THE TRUCK! Fiziev being the betting underdog here is disrespectful, and the CC+ algorithm recognizes it right off the bat. Fiziev has sneaky good wrestling, whereas Ruffy has almost non of which to speak. The theory of the case for Ruffy is that he’s a taller, longer fighter. Ordinarily, that’d pay dividends in a matchup like this. However, Fiziev is coming off of a statement win over Ignacio Bahamondes who is four inches taller than Ruffy and has an extra inch of reach. Fiziev can get it done against taller opponents. Expect this one to be no different.

Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (Co-Main Event)

Editor’s Note: Saint-Denis could probably win a dog fight on the feet with Hooker… but he doesn’t have to. Hooker has struggled mightily with guys who can wrestle. Saint-Denis can wrestle. Saint-Denis’ ability to do it on the ground and the feet will open up avenues to finishes if Hooker is not careful. Expect Saint-Denis to get after Hooker early. This is an easy fight of the night contender either way.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes (Title Fight Main Event)

Editor’s Note: Once again, I hope to be wrong (thankfully, I was in last week’s main event). However, there has been some unfortunate revisionism about the last matchup between these two that is causing me to believe Lopes is being overlooked. Lopes had a rough start to his last title shot. However, he composed himself and landed some really good shots. With the benefit of having been in there with Volkanovski before, and with the champ being almost another year older, Lopes should surprise a few people and come away with the belt.

Picture Credit: UFC