The UFC 324 card will feature twelve bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout for the interim lightweight championship between former interim champion Justin Gaethje (pictured left) and Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett (pictured right).

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 324 (Gaethje vs. Pimblett) Previews – January 24, 2026

Ty Miller vs. Adam Fugitt

Editor’s Note: Ty Miller is being way too overvalued in his UFC debut, especially considering two-thirds of his pro wins are decisions. Sure, Fugitt’s a disappointing 2-3 in the UFC, but his three losses have been against high level guys. Don’t overlook the 37 year-old veteran, who has an 80 percent finish rate, to spoil Miller’s debut to start off the card.

Josh Hokit vs. Denzel Freeman

Editor’s Note: Hokit is an impressively diverse heavyweight who mixes in a lot of takedowns and is a genuine submission threat. Look for him to start making waves in this division. This’ll be a good showcase for him to start off the year.

Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez

Editor’s Note: Johnson is a fan favorite of people who’ve been following this sport for a while. After reeling off two upsets, people are high on his prospects, even as he approaches 40. However, Hernandez seems to be hitting his stride and is more at home in this weight class. The odds for this fight started out around -300 for Hernandez. The enthusiasm behind Johnson have gotten them to where they are now, which makes Hernandez a pretty good steal at -115.

Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson

Editor’s Note: This should be more lopsided. Sure, Perez has been around the top of the division for a while now, but he’s lost five of his last six. By contrast, Johnson has won five of his last six, including a KO win over the current flyweight champion, Joshua Van. Johnson will also have a five-inch reach advantage. The only wrench to a clear cut Johnson victory is the fact that Perez missed weight by almost three pounds. That could give him a little extra gas in the tank, not having to cut that extra weight.

Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas

Editor’s Note: As much as I hate picking against Lithuanian fighters (especially when they’re favorites), I had to do it here. Krylov is one of the most dangerous light heavyweights on the planet. While Bukauskas’ career resurgence after his devastating knee injury has been wonderful to behold, he’s not faced anyone who’s going to apply pressure like Krylov. Look for “The Miner” from the Luhansk People’s Republic to force the issue in round one and get the win.

Ateba Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev

Editor’s Note: I’m not as high on Gautier as many MMA experts are this year. People are projecting him as a future title contender. I don’t quite see it (yet). However, Pulyaev is not the guy who’s going to derail the hype train. This one’s pretty straightforward.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Featured Prelim)

Editor’s Note: Speaking of things that are pretty straightforward, Umar Nurmagomedov should take this one handily. If Figueiredo doesn’t account heavily for Nurmagomedov’s grappling, he’ll spend a lot of time on his back in this one. If he does, he’ll create openings for the striking. This should be the decisive win that earns Umar another shot at bantamweight gold.

Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva

Editor’s Note: I agonized over this one for a while. It feels like the odds should be closer. But, in the end, Silva has way more paths to victory. He’s a more decisive finisher on the feet and has proven he can hang with the best on the ground. It’s tight, but I think Silva gets this done.

Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas

Editor’s Note: BACK UP THE TRUCK! These odds are supremely disrespectful to Thug Rose. Silva is as talented as anyone in this division (and I believe she’ll end up as a champion one day), but Namajunas’ time has not passed. Namajunas is one of the most precise strikers in any weight class and is deceptively good in the grappling. As long as she stays active, she can compete with Silva and grind out a decision win. Amazing value at +310 for the former strawweight queen.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis

Editor’s Note: I’ll go with Cortes- Acosta, but this is the kind of fight that feels made for Derrick Lewis to land a surprise KO. I’ll give the slight edge to Acosta’s speed and momentum to get this done. Don’t expect this fight to go the distance.

Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong (Co-Main Event)

Editor’s Note: This matchup seems perfect for O’Malley. Song is not a big takedown threat and, where he has struggled in the UFC, it’s been against precise strikers like Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. O’Malley is perhaps the most precise distance striker in the division. He’ll either keep Song at bay en route to a decision or make a frustrated Song pay reaching too far carelessly.

Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett (Title Fight Main Event)

Editor’s Note: I hope I’m wrong. I’ll just say that. People are probably reading too much into the Chandler fight, but Pimblett is the more dangerous fighter on the ground and Gaethje is someone who is way too willing to take a punch in order to give one. It just seems like there are too many ways Justin can lose outside of him fighting the perfect fight (which we’ve seen him do against guys like Rafael Fiziev). However, the smart money feels like it’s on Paddy to take home an interim belt.

Picture Credit: UFC