UFC Mexico City (Moreno vs. Erceg) Previews

The UFC Mexico City card will feature twelve bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. These previews were completed before the card was put on, but due to editorial difficulties, they are being posted after the fact. The card will be headlined by a bout between former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno (pictured left) and former title contender Steve Erceg (pictured right).

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Mexico City (Moreno vs. Erceg) Previews – March 29, 2025

Austin Hubbard vs. MarQuel Mederos