The UFC 313 card will feature twelve bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout between light heavyweight champion Alex “Poatan” Pereira (pictured left) and #1 contender, Magomed Ankalaev (pictured right) of Dagestan. The co-main will see lightweight contender Justin Gaethje rematch fellow contender Rafael Fiziev.

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 313 (Pereira vs. Ankalaev) Previews – March 8, 2025

Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castaneda

• The original algorithm likes Gutierrez’s strength of schedule and relative success compared with Castaneda’s ascendancy amongst lower tier competition. And, quite decidedly so.
• CageCalc+ has it more in line with the official betting odds, but Gutierrez’s striking is decisively better. Castaneda made up some ground in grappling, but not enough.
• EDITOR: This feels like too quick of a step up for Castaneda.

Ozzy Diaz vs. Djorden Santos

• Santos comes out on top in the classic algorithm merely by virtue of Diaz’s struggles thus far in the UFC.
• CageCalc+ has this as more of a blowout. Santos is way more active as a striker and will likely have the edge should any wrestling take place.
• EDITOR: I haven’t seen anything other than the fact the Santos is making his UFC debut that makes me feel good about picking Diaz. Go with Santos on this one.

Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall

• The original algorithm loves that Santos has been on an absolute tear and getting finishes while he does it.
• CageCalc+ actually gives the edge to Marshall. If he can get the fight down, he’s in his element. Marshall’s wrestling edge is significant enough to push him over the edge, all else considered.
• EDITOR: I think this will be closer than expected, but Santos has been able to fend off better grapplers than Marshall before and win. I don’t see this one going differently.

Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal

• Morono has been fighting top 15 talent (or close too it) for a while. His recent cold streak has not taken him past a point where the original algorithm will make him an underdog here.
• CageCalc+ sees it as clearer for Leal. He’s more active in both striking and wrestling.
• EDITOR: Don’t overthink it. Morono’s been slipping and Leal is very dangerous.

Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan

• Ferreira has had one slip-up, but has looked pretty good otherwise, whereas Petrosyan has a tendency to get finished early.
• CageCalc+ has this as closer than the classic algorithm, but still gives it to the underdog. The deciding factor was Ferreira’s finishing ability.
• EDITOR: I was shocked to see Ferreira as the underdog here. I see this ending as another KO. Petrosyan hasn’t shown me anything that’d suggest otherwise lately.

Rei Tsuruya vs. Joshua Van

• While Tsuruya remains undefeated, the classic algorithm values Van’s top 15 experience.
• CageCalc+ gives Van the edge. The stats are tight and this one might’ve tilted the other way, had Tsuruya not taken this on short notice.
• EDITOR: I think Van is the better man in this one, but do agree it’d be a really good fight with an even camp for both sides. As it is, Van should take this one if he sticks to his striking game.

Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Featured Prelim)

• The classic algorithm sees a former title contender against a guy making his debut. Not a hard call given its parameters.
• CageCalc+ gives the edge to Blaydes, but slightly less convincingly. Kuniev’s submission ability and takedown defense kept this one from getting ugly.
• EDITOR: Kuniev is a talented heavyweight. But, making your debut against a top-5 guy as versatile as Curtis Blaydes… that is too tall for most anyone in this promotion. It would be quite the shocker if Kuniev pulls this off.

Bobby “King” Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy

• Green has some solid wins, and some more solid losses. Ruffy’s been impressive but against lesser guys and for not nearly as long.
• CageCalc+ is also confident in Green. Green struggles on the ground, but Ruffy is no threat there. Green’s vulnerabilities won’t be as exposed.
• EDITOR: Sure, this is not as bad a stylistic matchup for Green, but Ruffy is so fast and so talented. Green’s a brawler. I think Ruffy ends up catching the chin for a KO.

Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo

• Lemos is a former title challenger and still a top strawweight contender. Lucindo is coming up, but this is a bigger test than she’s seen.
• CageCalc+ sees this for Lucindo. She has better striking defense, which should be vital in a fight like this. Also, after seeing how Lemos struggled with wrestling defense against Zhang Weili, Lucindo has the grappling numbers to replicate that.
• EDITOR: I think this will be a tough test, but I think age might catch up to Lemos eventually. A younger, faster opponent will be tough, especially with Lucindo’s skill set.

Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

• The traditional algorithm sees two fighters coming from opposite directions now sitting snugly right outside the top 15. Bahamondes gets the edge by the narrowest of margins.
• CageCalc+ has this way more separated. Turner’s striking and reach mitigate many of Bahamondes’ strengths.
• EDITOR: I’m sympathetic to CageCalc+’s determination here. I think recent losses make people forget Turner was one boneheaded decision away from KOing the most recent lightweight title challenger, Renato Moicano. I think people will remember Turner’s skills after this one.

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev (Co-Main Event)

• Gaethje is a legend. It takes someone special to get him out of there. Fiziev’s resume is actually a little underwhelming considering his reputation.
• CageCalc+ likewise sees Gaethje coming out on top. He’s a more active striker and holds his own on takedowns. Though, it likely won’t come to that.
• EDITOR: As Fiziev himself wondered aloud at the press conference… he’s coming off two losses, coming in on short notice, and lost to Gaethje previously. How is he the favorite? I’m going with Gaethje.

Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev (Title Fight Main Event)

• The traditional algorithm has come to respect Pereira, given the talent he’s mowed down lately. A couple years ago, he was in the low 1700s.
• CageCalc+ has it closer, but still goes with Pereira. Pereira is not as disadvantaged in the grappling as many expect.
• EDITOR: I know MMA math does not work this way, but watching both of these men in their fights with Jan Blachowicz, it’s hard not to think Ankalaev comes away with this one. Ankalaev struggled early, but started dismantling Blachowicz late with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Pereira was biting on feints and getting taken down consistently en route to a split decision win. I think Pereira’s leg kicks could be a factor, but I like Ankalaev to get the job done here by fighting smart.

Picture Credit: ESPN MMA