The UFC Vegas 103 card will feature ten bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout between flyweight contenders Manel Kape of Angola (pictured left) and Asu Almabayev of Kazakhstan (pictured right).

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Seattle (Cejudo vs. Song) Previews – February 22, 2025

Charles Johnson vs. Ramazan Temirov

• The original algorithm likes Johnson’s consistency lately and his experience against higher level competition.
• CageCalc+ gives Johnson the big edge because of his grappling advantage and his seven-inch reach advantage.
• EDITOR: Temirov is an animal in the striking. Joshua Van had more success against Johnson when he let his hands go. That is something Temirov is well able to do.

Andrea Lee vs. JJ Aldrich

• Aldrich has been inconsistent, but Lee comes in on a five-fight skid. The classic algorithm doesn’t see that changing.
• CageCalc+ has this for Lee largely because of her grappling edge and how close the striking metrics are. Her grappling and wrestling may be a game changer.
• EDITOR: Lee struggles against wrestling and clinches. This should actually be a good matchup for her, given Aldrich is not much of a wrestler and Lee carries the reach advantage.

Lucas Almeida vs. Danny Silva

• The original algorithm likes that Almeida has nearly twice as much pro experience as Silva.
• CageCalc+ has no such qualms. Silva has the edge just about everywhere you can imagine.
• EDITOR: I tend to agree with the CageCalc+. I don’t see too many weak points here for Silva. Anything can happen and Almeida came in heavy, but expect Silva to win nonetheless.

Ricardo Ramos vs. Chepe Mariscal

• Mariscal hasn’t lost a fight in nearly five years. The classic algorithm values momentum.
• CageCalc+ has it closer. The fighters are even in most categories, with Mariscal having a slight edge in the striking and Ramos slightly ahead in grappling. With the odds where they are, that pushed Mariscal over the top.
• EDITOR: This should probably be closer than it is, but Mariscal’s balanced game should be enough to secure him the win.

Austen Lane vs. Mario Pinto

• Despite no UFC experience for Pinto, Lane’s middling performance in the big show thus far gives Pinto the edge.
• CageCalc+ has this a little closer. Pinto has no grappling of which to speak, but has insanely high striking volume.
• EDITOR: Pinto is a bit of an unknown quantity, but Lane has really not impressed thus far. The transition from NFL to UFC is not a typically successful one.

Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson

• Both men are prolific finishers. Barlow has done better to avoid defeat. He gets the classic algorithm’s edge, despite Patterson being more experienced.
• CageCalc+ gives Barlow the edge as well, given his big advantage in striking statistics.
• EDITOR: This is the tale of two fighters. Barlow is a great striker who has almost no takedown game. Patterson is a submission artist who has only ever lost by KO. Betting this to NOT go the distance might be wise. Betting Barlow by KO feels safe as well.

William Gomis vs. Hyder Amil

• Gomis is on a good run in the UFC against higher quality competition than what Amil has fought.
• CageCalc+ has this really close. Gomis being the slightly better grappler and having more experience going the distance puts him narrowly above Amil.
• EDITOR: Gomis’ grappling advantage shouldn’t amount to anything. This fight will be on the feet and Amil is relentless.

Nasrat Haqparast vs. Esteban Ribovics

• Haqparast has lingered around the edge of the top 15, fighting top notch competition. Ribovics has also been successful, but with a lesser strength of schedule. This is why the classic algorithm favors Haqparast.
• CageCalc+ has Ribovics with a slight advantage, but across most all of the matrices.
• EDITOR: I wrestled with this one, but I go back to Ribovics’ performance against Daniel Zellhuber. I don’t think Haqparast can match that level on the feet, nor do I trust he will go to the ground with Ribovics.

Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez (Co-Main Event)

• Marquez hasn’t won a fight since 2021, and it came against Sam Alvey, who finished his last nine fights in the UFC at 0-8-1. Brundage has done enough to be the classic algorithm’s favorite here.
• CageCalc+ sees this as pretty lopsided for Brundage. His offensive wrestling offsets Marquez’s submission ability in the grappling department.
• EDITOR: I don’t understand Marquez being the favorite here. Brundage pretty well fended off Bo Nickal. This should be an easier challenge for sure. Marquez may already be over the hill.

Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev (Main Event)

• Almabayev has looked unstoppable. Kape has been solid, but typically falters when stepping up in competition. The classic algorithm gives Almabayev the slight edge.
• CageCalc+ has this for Kape and by a razor thin margin. The combination of Kape’s aggressive striking and good takedown defense makes him a slim favorite.
• EDITOR: Almabayev was drawing comparisons to Khabib Nurmagomedov his last time out. Kape has been super impressive lately, but has struggled against good grapplers. Almabayev needs to shoot takedowns early and often. Being wary of the takedown should keep Kape from overextending and using his power advantage. Back up the bus for Almabayev.

Picture Credit: UFC