The UFC Seattle card will feature twelve bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout between former two-division champion, Henry Cejudo (pictured left) and bantamweight contender, Song Yadong (pictured right).

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Seattle (Cejudo vs. Song) Previews – February 22, 2025

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Raffael Cerqueira

• The original algorithm likes Bukauskas’s experience and recent resurgence, despite Cerqueira’s better record against lesser competition.
• CageCalc+ gives Bukauskas the big edge largely because of his decided edge in the grappling. He also has slim edges in most every other matrix.
• EDITOR: This is a good matchup for Bukauskas to re-assert himself in this division. This could kickstart a run for him.

Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Eric McConico

• Ruziboev has been a consistent finisher against top-level guys. That adds up to a big favorite against a guy making his debut.
• CageCalc+ has this a little closer. A lot of that is because it is conservative when there’s this little data on a guy like McConico. However, it comes to the same conclusion.
• EDITOR: Ruziboev is pretty unstoppable when he doesn’t try to weight cut to 170. Back at middleweight, he should get back to his winning ways.

Austin Vanderford vs. Nikolay Veretennikov

• The original algorithm will take Vanderford’s pre-UFC record over Veretennikov’s (plus one UFC loss).
• CageCalc+ gives the edge to the [slight] underdog. The Kazakh is the more accurate striker and his high KO rate pairs well with Vanderford’s poor striking defense.
• EDITOR: I think this will be a good way for Veretennikov to get his first UFC win. Mr. Paige VanZant (Vanderford) comes in on pretty short notice to make his UFC debut. And, as mentioned, Veretennikov will have the big advantage on the feet.

Ricky Simon vs. Javid Basharat

• Simon has been fighting top 15 talent for a while. His recent cold streak has not taken him past a point where the original algorithm will make him an underdog here.
• CageCalc+ sees it as close, but gives Basharat the edge. He’s got a good edge in the offensive striking and is decent enough as a grappler to be a well-rounded opponent to mitigate Simon’s skills.
• EDITOR: This is a sneaky good matchup early in the card. Simon probably shouldn’t be this big an underdog, but Basharat should be able to learn from how Vinicius Oliveira shut down Simon on the feet and avoided takedowns to cruise to a similar victory.

Nick Klein vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik

• Neither has enough experience for the traditional algorithm to make this as lopsided as the oddsmakers have it now.
• CageCalc+ has this as a runaway. Abdul-Malik’s striking gives him a big edge, despite Klein’s relentless wrestling.
• EDITOR: Don’t overthink it.

Andre Fili vs. Melquizael Costa

• Fili has been around for a long time, but hasn’t been able to string together a bunch of wins. Meanwhile, Costa has been hot lately, but not for nearly long enough.
• CageCalc+ gives Hill the edge to the veteran. Fili’s edge in reach and ability to go the distance was enough to put him over the top in a very close numbers game.
• EDITOR: I think Fili’s age might make it difficult for him to hang with a hungry up-and-comer like Costa. I’ve historically been bearish on Costa’s prospects. I’ll admit when I’m wrong.

Ion Cutelaba vs. Ibo Aslan

• Cutelaba has had a rough go of it lately, whereas Aslan has been rolling through people.
• CageCalc+ gives the edge to Cutelaba because Aslan has no wrestling/grappling of which to speak. Nor does Aslan have experience winning decisions. The advanced algorithm sees that playing a factor.
• EDITOR: Cutelaba is the type to swing it out, even if he does have a wrestling advantage. That plays right to Aslan’s strengths. The Last Ottoman (Aslan) should be able to collect another KO win.

Alonzo Menifield vs. Julius Walker

• Menifield had a crack at the top 10 not too long ago. Of course the classic algorithm gives him the edge over a debut fighter with only six pro fights.
• CageCalc+ is also confident in Menifield. Walker may be the more active striker, but Menifield is more accurate and will (in the unlikely event of grappling) have the advantage on the ground.
• EDITOR: Menifield should go out swinging and get a KO against Walker before he can get his feet under him. This is a tough way to start your UFC career.

Jean Silva vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

• Silva has been on fire since coming to the UFC. Baghdasaryan hasn’t been able to replicate that. Despite his 3-1 UFC record, he’s been sparsely active.
• CageCalc+ sees this for Silva as well. While Baghdasaryan is the slightly better striker, Silva will have all the grappling in this one. Silva also is closer than most would think in terms of the striking numbers.
• EDITOR: Silva will be relentless in the grappling in all likelihood. Baghdasaryan should hold his own on the feet, but this looks like a Silva decision win.

Rob Font vs. Jean Matsumoto

• The traditional algorithm has Font as a top ten bantamweight. He’s done enough to hold that ranking, despite some recent setbacks.
• CageCalc+ has this way more separated. Font is better in the striking numbers and has the edge in terms of being a ranked fighter going against a guy coming in on short notice. That usually only goes one way and the algorithm weighs that heavily.
• EDITOR: I’m sympathetic to CageCalc+’s determination here, but I think Matsumoto’s youth will help him against the aging Font. He’ll be so much faster. Tough to pick against him.

Brendan Allen vs. Anthony Hernandez (Co-Main Event)

• Allen has been one of the classic algorithm’s top rated middleweights for a while because of his activity, consistency, and finishing ability. As such, he’ll be the favorite against most guys in this division.
• CageCalc+ sees Hernandez’s relentless wrestling style as a nightmare for Allen. It’s a slim edge, but that is the dealbreaker.
• EDITOR: I want to trust that the classic algorithm sees something in Allen that nobody else sees. I’ve been shocked at his staying power atop the CC Ratings. We’ll find out here if that confidence is warranted. I think Allen’s shown enough ability to stop guys like Hernandez before, even if it’s riding it out to a decision. This will be Hernandez’s toughest test.

Henry Cejudo vs. Song Yadong (Main Event)

• The traditional algorithm sees a former double champ who’s only lost to the former champ and the current champ since his return. It won’t really drop him until he loses a fight like this one.
• CageCalc+ has it closer, but still goes with Cejudo. The main differentiator is the wrestling numbers. No surprise given Cejudo’s background.
• EDITOR: I think the algorithm definitely overrates Cejudo. However, I am not inclined to doubt Triple C just yet. He fought the champ, Merab Dvalishvili, harder than anyone has on his title run. He also, arguably, should have emerged victorious against Aljamain Sterling in his title fight. Cejudo has a wealth of fight IQ and main event experience. I think the Vegas odds are a bit silly.

Picture Credit: UFC