The UFC Vegas 102 card will feature twelve bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout between middleweight contender, Jared Cannonier (pictured left) and rising Brazilian star, Gregory Rodrigues (pictured right). The co-main event will feature long-time featherweight contender Calvin Kattar take on Moroccan prospect, Youssef Zalal.

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Vegas 102 (Cannonier vs. Rodrigues) Previews – February 15, 2025

Julia Avila vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti

• The original algorithm likes Cavalcanti because of recency. Cavalcanti’s on a run now, whereas most of Avila’s success came earlier in her career.
• CageCalc+ gives Cavalcanti a bigger edge largely because of her relentless striking advantage.
• EDITOR: Don’t overthink this. Avila might be able to do something if she’s relentless at shooting takedowns to play to an area she might be stronger. However, Avila has not been a takedown artist in her career. She’d be out of place pursuing that strategy.

Valter Walker vs. Don’Tale Mayes

• The original algorithm can’t reward Mayes’ consistent inconsistency.
• CageCalc+ has this much wider. That is largely because Walker carries grappling numbers that are uncommonly good for the heavyweight division.
• EDITOR: I do think Walker’s relation to ranked light heavyweight Johnny Walker gives him more credibility than he’s due. That said, I agree with my algorithms that Mayes is not the man to derail the hype train.

Vince Morales vs. Elijah Smith

• The original algorithm sees Morales’ many losses in the UFC as proof that someone with the relative lack of experience Smith brings can get a win here.
• CageCalc+ gives the slimmest of edges to Smith. Smith simply carries more activity in his fights, which is conducive to decision wins (he’s never lost a decision).
• EDITOR: In a razor thin bout like this, I tend to favor the veterans. Also, Morales has a relatively high KO rate and Elijah Smith’s only loss was by KO. Smith could come in timid (added to his debut jitters) and let Morales have his way in this one.

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Khaos Williams

• Williams has been a mainstay near the top of a tough division. Bonfim’s record thus far has been impressive, but hasn’t fought near as high level competition. The traditional algorithm gives Williams the edge.
• CageCalc+ sees this as a mismatch. First, Williams takes this on relatively short notice. Second, Williams has no grappling of which to speak. Meanwhile, Bonfim has 75 percent of his wins by submission. There’s a gap.
• EDITOR: I tend to agree with the CageCalc+’s theory of the case here.

Rafael Estevam vs. Jesus Aguilar

• Aguilar actually cracks the CC Ratings’ top 15 in the flyweight division, getting the edge for the traditional algorithm.
• CageCalc+ has this as a runaway. Estevam’s seven-inch reach advantage is a game-changer, as is his big striking advantage. Aguilar is a more active grappler, but not in any lopsided way that would shift the balance.
• EDITOR: I think people are way too bullish on Estevam here. That said, they should still be kind of bullish. His reach advantage should help him keep away from Aguilar’s takedowns, which should be plenty.

Angela Hill vs. Ketlen Souza

• Hill has been around for a long time, but hasn’t been able to string together a bunch of wins. Meanwhile, Souza has been hot lately.
• CageCalc+ gives Hill the edge. The matrices that work out in her favor are the method ones. Hill is more experienced at going the distance and is good at defending against being finished. Souza, on the other hand, mostly relies on finish wins.
• EDITOR: I think the recent past is informative. Hill has been able to hang with some of the best talent in the strawweight division (even if not winning all the time). I think this is too tough a test too soon for Souza.

Jose Delgado vs. Connor Matthews

• This is another case where the traditional algorithm gives the edge to a debut fighter taking on a struggling veteran.
• CageCalc+ gives the edge to Delgado as well. Delgado’s limited experience shows him shooting a lot of takedowns. That ought to drive Matthews crazy. Matthews’ paltry 50 percent takedown defense will make him an even easier target.
• EDITOR: Better wrestlers usually win. Matthews is not strong enough in other areas to make me confident he can win. This is a good matchup for the newcomer, Delgado.

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Andre Petroski

• Petroski has been inconsistent, and all of his losses are finishes, which hurts you more in the CC Ratings. Vieira has largely taken care of business. While he also gets finished, he is the better finisher himself.
• CageCalc+ is also confident in Vieira. Add Petroski taking this on short notice to Vieira’s aforementioned finishing ability, he has the clear edge in this one.
• EDITOR: Vieira by submission is not a bad bet here. That’s how I see this going.

Ismael Bonfim vs. Nazim Sadykhov

• Bonfim has been on fire since coming to the UFC. Sadykhov hasn’t been able to replicate that during his slightly longer UFC career.
• CageCalc+ sees this for Bonfim as well. Bonfim is much better in the striking. His KO rate, matched with Sadykhov’s very poor striking defense weighs heavily in the CageCalc+ algorithm’s assessment of this one.
• EDITOR: Sadykhov is not the best at avoiding strikes, but he’s shown he has a chin, having never been KO’d. His advantage in the grappling could be key. I actually like him in this spot.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dylan Budka

• The traditional algorithm has Budka rated as the lowest of all middleweights. Combine that with Shahbazyan’s high-level experience and recent success… and you get a lopsided result.
• CageCalc+ has this way closer than you’d expect. Budka has more experience fighting out a decision win. That looms large the longer a fight goes. Shahbazyan’s skill advantages were enough to put him over the top, but if Budka avoids getting finished, the cardio factor might come into play.
• EDITOR: CageCalc+ made me pay a little closer attention, but Shahbazyan’s advantage in most all departments is enough to keep me from questioning the conventional wisdom here.

Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal (Co-Main Event)

• Kattar has been a staple in the featherweight top 10 for years. Zalal has been hot lately, but he has yet to score a big win. This would be it. However, until then, the traditional rating algorithm makes Kattar the favorite.
• CageCalc+ sees Zalal’s grappling advantage as key. The striking numbers are also close. Part of that is probably the beatdown Max Holloway gave Kattar years back dragging down Kattar’s averages.
• EDITOR: Aljamain Sterling showed the roadmap to beating Kattar. Zalal is a talented grappler and Kattar didn’t really show an ability to do anything about it his last time out.

Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Main Event)

• The traditional algorithm gives Cannonier the edge for his unreal strength of schedule. He’s fought everyone who’s anyone in this division for years. Rodrigues has had more success, but not of this caliber yet.
• CageCalc+ has it closer. Rodrigues comes out on top because of his grappling advantage. He is more active in the takedown game and he avoids getting taken down.
• EDITOR: Rodrigues doesn’t have the best striking defense. Against a guy like Cannonier, that could be a problem. I don’t see Cannonier letting this go to the ground. Vertically, Cannonier should be the better man in there.

Picture Credit: UFC