The UFC 312 card will feature twelve bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by two title bouts. The first will see women’s strawweight champion Zhang Weili (pictured bottom left) defend her belt against undefeated phenom Tatiana Suarez (pictured bottom right). The main event is a re-match of last year’s middleweight title bout, with champion Dricus Du Plessis (pictured top left) defending his belt against former champion, Sean Strickland (pictured top right).

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 312 (Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2) Previews – February 8, 2025

Quillan Salkilld vs. Anshul Jubli

• The original algorithm likes Salkilld because his pre-UFC tenure is enough to top Jubli’s mediocre performance in the UFC thus far.
• CageCalc+ gives Salkilld the edge because of his relentless grappling. Jubli has better striking numbers, but Salkilld’s six-inch reach advantage pretty well mitigates that.
• EDITOR: Don’t overthink this. Yes, it’s true a debut fighter should not be a -650 favorite. Nevertheless, this is a pretty easy entry on home soil for the Aussie.

Kevin Jousset vs. Jonathan Micallef

• The original algorithm maintains its bias against less experienced fighters. Jousset’s had a decent 2-1 run in the UFC, with his only loss coming against the highly rated Bryan Battle.
• CageCalc+ has this much wider. Jousset dominated the striking matrix, largely because of Micallef’s pretty putrid striking accuracy. Micallef’s grappling advantage isn’t nearly as wide.
• EDITOR: The better wrestler does typically win fights like this. But, in three UFC fights, Jousset has never been taken down once, nor has he ever been submitted. Micallef might be a live dog, but it is hard for me to wrap my mind around just how bad Micallef’s striking numbers are (25 percent accuracy and just 16 percent defense). Jousset can gameplan accordingly.

Kody Steele vs. Rongzhu

• The original algorithm takes Steele’s limited undefeated experience over Rongzhu’s recent inconsistency by a slim, but clear margin.
• CageCalc+ gives the edge to Rongzhu because of his decided edge in the grappling. Steele is not a big takedown guy. Rongzhu can have the edge here, as he has a submission rate twice that of Steele’s (28 percent to 14 percent respectively).
• EDITOR: Rongzhu does have the edge in the grappling, but even then, he only comes out at 51 percent in the CageCalc+. I don’t think the gap is as wide as the numbers indicate and Rongzhu has been a stand-up-and-swing kind of guy, which plays into Steele’s wheelhouse.

Aleksandre Topuria vs. Colby Thicknesse

• In a bout between two fighters in their UFC debut, the traditional algorithm invariably gives the edge to the one who has more wins and fewer losses.
• CageCalc+ sees very similar fighters with not too much of a track record to speak of. Topuria is a better finisher, but has never gone the distance. Thicknesse has more experience, but comes in on short notice and is not as powerful (and has a reach disadvantage)
• EDITOR: Hard to know what to make of these guys until we see them in action. Given Thicknesse is stepping in to replace a previously-scheduled opponent, I’ll give the nod to Topuria.

Cong Wang vs. Bruna Brasil

• Both fighters have been inconsistent inside the octagon and are both in roughly the same spot, being five and six fights over .500. Thus, they’re pretty even in the eyes of the traditional algorithm.
• CageCalc+ has this closer than the oddsmakers would suggest. However, Wang gets the edge because she is way more active in the striking, and the discrepancy in the grappling is not nearly as wide for Brasil to make up the difference. Brasil being susceptible to KO also doesn’t project well for her against a KO artist like Wang.
• EDITOR: I think people are way too bullish on Wang. Because she beat Valentina Shevchenko before they were in the UFC, people are projecting her as some sort of femal Alex Pereira. She looked rough her last time out and got submitted. When Brasil goes for a takedown, she usually gets it (72 percent takedown accuracy). She just has to go for it. She will lose a standup fight with Wang. Brasil has to use the gameplan she used to beat Molly McCann. Get close and get to the ground. She can do it. I’m picking her optimistically, hoping she goes for a takedown heavy approach.

Tom Nolan vs. Viacheslav Borschev

• Nolan is a more consistent finisher and has had a better start to his UFC career than Borschev, who’s been entertaining, but inconsistent.
• CageCalc+ gives Borschev a slight edge, in line with the oddsmakers. Borshcev is a KO artist and Nolan has only ever lost by KO (albeit once). Borschev also has the edge in defensive striking. Though neither man has shot a takedown yet in their UFC careers, if it comes to that, Borschev does have the better takedown defense of the two.
• EDITOR: I think Nolan has more ways to win. He’s better at working to a decision if he has to. He has a longer reach and is the more active striker of the two men. He also has the reach advantage. Borschev’s takedown defense edge shouldn’t mean much in what should be a slugfest. Take the even money on Nolan while you can get it.

Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos

• Jenkins is 3-1 in the UFC, where Santos is 1-2. The algorithm has seen Santos falter against higher competition.
• CageCalc+ gives the edge to Santos, though. Santos is a submission specialist and two of Jenkins’ three losses have come by submission. The advanced algorithm sees that as a recipe for disaster for the Aussie.
• EDITOR: Surely, not me picking three upsets in a row, right? Yet, here we are. Jenkins is relentless. The theory of the case for Santos is a win by submission. However, Jenkins has a solid 76 percent takedown defense. Jenkins can use that to keep the fight upright long enough to score some striking to weaken his opponent. I like Jenkins here.

Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado

• Matthews has been so active and, for the most part, successful, winning 13 fights inside the octaon. Prado, on the other hand, only has one UFC win. There’s a big gap here in success and experience that the algorithm values.
• CageCalc+ is also confident in Matthews. Despite Prado’s 50 percent submission rate, he’s not been keen to shoot takedowns lately. Matthews has the edge in the striking department, so Matthews can dictate the pace and location of this fight.
• EDITOR: Not a fourth straight upset. This feels easy to call. Matthews has the size and reach advantage (as Prado is coming from lightweight). He’s also got the statistical advantage and a wealth of experience. Dare I say a no-brainer?

Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato

• Bellato’s only UFC win (in his only fight) came against the since-cut Ihor Potieria. Crute has fought a murderer’s row. He hasn’t been terribly consistent, but his strength of schedule is much higher, enough to put him over the top.
• CageCalc+ sees this a little more clearly for Crute. Crute is one of the more active takedown shooters in the division. Bellato will have the power advantage and the striking edge. The fact that Bellato is a fill-in for Marcin Prachnio weighs against him as well.
• EDITOR: Not sure why Crute isn’t the favorite here. So, I guess that means I’m going against the oddsmakers again. Crute has had some rotten luck lately, but it’s been against all ranked guys. When he fights down, he’s pretty well unstoppable. He should get back in the win column.

Tallison Teixeira vs. Justin Tafa

• Again, the traditional algorithm values UFC experience. Tafa has it. Teixeira doesn’t. If Teixeira had more pre-UFC experience, it might’ve leveled the playing field. But, he doesn’t.
• CageCalc+ gives Teixeira the decided edge here. The Brazilian is a relentless striker and both men are KO artists. However, Teixeira boasts a whopping nine-inch reach advantage. In a fight between two guys who stand and swing, that’s a really bad disadvantage for Tafa to have.
• EDITOR: Someone’s going to sleep in this one. My money would be on the much longer guy who lands a significant strike once every four seconds (on average). That’s Teixeira.

Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez (Title Fight Co-Main Event)

• Weili has been as dominant a force as the strawweight division has seen. With Suarez, she has dominance, but sporadically (largely due to injury). The traditional algorithm takes Weili’s experience, consistency, and title reign over Suarez.
• CageCalc+ actually gives the edge to Suarez by a decent margin. Both fighters have relatively even striking stats across their UFC careers. However, Suarez is by far the more accomplished wrestler or grappler.
• EDITOR: This betting line feels disrespectful. I’ll withhold some measure of criticism, as I was surprised by how confident CageCalc+ was on Suarez. Suarez has never fought anyone like Weili. She beat Jessica Andrade, who took the fight on short notice after Virna Jandiroba dropped out. Weili actually had more success in the grappling against Yan Xiaonan than she did in the striking. Weili also was able to submit noted wrestler Carla Esparza en route to re-gaining her title. As Israel Adesanya would say, “Y’all must’ve forgot.” Weili will remind you Saturday night.

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland (Title Fight Main Event)

• The traditional algorithm gives Du Plessis the edge for being the current champ and for making fewer mistakes in the octagon than Strickland, who’s lost some head-scratchers over his long career.
• CageCalc+ has it closer, but Du Plessis pushes himself over the top with his superior grappling numbers. Any takedowns attempted will be his. In a fight that’s statistically very close, that is enough.
• EDITOR: Why not go out in a blaze of glory, huh? After watching their first fight back, I am more resolute in my opinion that Strickland won. He would likely have done so more convincingly if not for the clash of heads that cut him open above his eye. Strickland has a solid 77 percent takedown defense and has experience with Du Plessis’s looks. Strickland is a very good defensive fighter. If he can produce enough volume, he should be able to secure a decision win.

Picture Credit: UFC