The UFC Saudi Arabia card will feature eleven bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout between former middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya (pictured top left) and French contender Nassourdine Imavov (pictured top right). The co-main event will see undefeated Dagestani contender Shara Magomedov (pictured bottom left) take on the dangerous British striker, Michael “Venom” Page.

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Saudi Arabia (Adesanya vs. Imavov) Previews – February 1, 2025

Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Jamal Pogues

• The original algorithm likes Pogues, because he has more experience in the octagon (and in pro MMA in general).
• CageCalc+ gives Abdelwahab the edge, as he’s a more active striker and grappler on average than Pogues.
• EDITOR: The ring rust on Abdelwahab after his suspension will be a key factor. However, Pogues’s lack of power (sub-50 KO percentage) may cost him against a knockout guy like Abdelwahab. And, if things do get to the clinch or the ground, that’ll favor the Egyptian as well.

Bogdan Grad vs. Lucas Alexander

• The original algorithm sees a guy making his debut after a successful pre-UFC career against a guy who is the second-lowest rated featherweight, after a rough start to his UFC career.
• CageCalc+ has this much tighter, because of Alexander’s big reach advantage and superior striking defense. However, Grad’s decided grappling advantage pushes him just over the top.
• EDITOR: Alexander missing weight isn’t a great sign. Grad is good enough on the feet that he should be able to avoid being KO’d by Alexander. Grad’s got to get this to the ground. Alexander has almost no grappling of which to speak. Grad should be shooting takedowns right away to get this win.

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

• The original algorithm knows Jasudavicius has been on a tear lately, with two submission wins. Whereas, Bueno Silva has lost two straight in a weaker bantamweight division.
• CageCalc+ is even more bullish on Jasudavicius. Bueno Silva has a good submission game, but Jasudavicius is also strong there. Jasudavicius will have a big reach advantage and should have the edge in the striking.
• EDITOR: Bueno Silva’s been losing lately, but one of those was a title fight at a bigger weight class. The other was because of a cut in an otherwise close fight. I think Bueno Silva can get in close and mitigate Jasudavicius’s reach advantage right away. At that point, she should be the stronger fighter.

Terrance McKinney vs. Damir Hadzovic

• McKinney is fun, but that hasn’t always translated into wins. The algorithm has no eyes, so it sees this as a much closer contest than the oddsmakers give it credit for.
• CageCalc+ has Hadzovic with the better striking stats, but that is largely mitigated by McKinney’s reach advantage. McKinney holds the decided edge in the grappling and submission matrices.
• EDITOR: I do think this should be closer than it is. But, once McKinney gets a takedown, that should be all she wrote. The only wild card is McKinney’s propensity to get caught, which would be good for Hadzovic, who has 50 percent of his wins by KO. Still, McKinney by submission is a decent bet for this one.

Shamil Gaziev vs. Thomas Petersen

• Gaziev hasn’t been super impressive in the UFC, but he’s also fought a much harder schedule than one might expect for a guy with only three UFC fights. Petersen, on the other hand, is 1-1 against lower tier competition. The traditional algorithm gives Gaziev a big edge.
• CageCalc+ also has this as closer than many expect. Petersen is a much more active striker and grappler in the cage. Gaziev gets the edge because he does have more submission ability, but Petersen’s a guy whose skillset matches up better against Gaziev than many think.
• EDITOR: Petersen has the stats, as CageCalc+ showed, but he’s been so milquetoast thus far in his UFC career, it’s hard to see him getting past Gaziev in a three-round fight.

Muhammad Naimov vs. Kaan Ofli

• The original algorithm sees Naimov’s done well against a decent caliber of opponent. On the other hand, Ofli got starched in his UFC debut off The Ultimate Fighter. Not hard to see why he has the big edge.
• CageCalc+ goes even further. Naimov is the longer fighter, the more active striker, and someone who can outgrapple a jiujitsu guy like Ofli. Naimov has the advantage almost everywhere except the submission matrix.
• EDITOR: If Naimov is smart, he should just keep this on the feet. Ofli has a good submission game, but is not as good at the takedowns. Ofli’s opportunities will only present themselves if Naimov lets them. If he’s coached right, this should be an easy win.

Fares Ziam vs. Mike Davis

• The original algorithm sees very similar fighters. Both are on four-fight win streaks, with their last loss coming by submission. Ziam has the slight edge because of his strength of schedule.
• CageCalc+ gives the edge to Davis. While Ziam is better about diversifying his approach, Davis is more active in seeking the finish. CageCalc+ sees Davis as the one who will be driving most of the offense in this one.
• EDITOR: Ziam has been really impressive lately. While Davis may be more offensive, Ziam’s reach advantage should force Davis into precarious positions that should allow Ziam to piece him up. This is a very ripe upset pick.

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira

• The original algorithm has Nurmagomedov as a top 15 bantamweight. His only loss in his last six fights was a tight decision to Jonathan Martinez. Oliveira is rising steadily, though half of his UFC wins came against a fighter making a debut on short notice. The strength of victory is not enough to put him higher in the ratings. Though, a win here would do it.
• CageCalc+ is also confident in the Dagestani to get this done. Both men are fairly active, but Oliveira is far more susceptible to being finished. Oliveira has been pretty much KO or bust his career, whereas Nurmagomedov has never been finished.
• EDITOR: We finally get Nurmagomedov vs. Oliveira! Well… kind of. This will be a great matchup. Oliveira will be dangerous as long as this fight goes. Nurmagomedov has to be disciplined to avoid setting himself up for the KO blow. He should be able to do that. I was tempted to pick Oliveira after his last performance against Ricky Simon, but am sticking with my gut.

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

• Rozenstruik has strung together some good wins after a tough stretch. However, he doesn’t have the finishing pedigree Pavlovich has, despite his current losing streak.
• CageCalc+ sees both fighters as strong in the same areas, but Pavlovich is just stronger. Neither man has ever attempted a takedown. So, if it’s down to striking, Pavlovich has a big reach advantage and is way more active in the striking.
• EDITOR: It feels like this fight was made by someone who wants to hurt Rozenstruik. I don’t see this going any other way besides a first round KO for Pavlovich. This matchup is tailored to that outcome.

Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page (Co-Main Event)

• Page has come in with a .500 record in the UFC, both by decision. Meanwhile, Magomedov has delivered two KOs en route to a 4-0 UFC start. The algorithm adjusts accordingly.
• CageCalc+ gives Page the edge due to his reach advantage and the fact that any grappling that will happen in this fight will be his. That’s a game changing back-pocket option if he wants it.
• EDITOR: I wanted to go with Magomedov here, I really did. But, having watched both of Page’s UFC fights, I think it’ll be hard for a distance striker like Magomedov to have success against a much longer opponent like Page, who hangs out at distance the whole time and is pretty hard to hit.

Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov (Main Event)

• Adesanya hasn’t lost a non-title fight in his MMA career. Ever. It takes the best of the best to get him out of there. Imavov may have all the momentum, but his strength of schedule doesn’t touch Adesanya’s, nor does his winning pedigree.
• CageCalc+ actually gives the edge to Imavov by a hair. That is almost certainly due to the massive gap in grappling. Adesanya also doesn’t have the biggest edge in the striking matrices either, with Imavov actually, historically, being the more active striker.
• EDITOR: It’s hard to fathom Adesanya losing a fight like this. Imavov lost to Sean Strickland (with Strickland taking the fight on short notice). Adesanya has a full camp and is a far more accomplished striker. Imavov likely won’t hit him with anything he hasn’t seen. His only hope is the grappling, which could be a game-changer, but I can’t pick against Adesanya in a fight like this.

Picture Credit: UFC