The UFC 311 card will feature thirteen bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a bout for the lightweight title between champion Islam Makhachev (pictured top left) and short-notice contender Renato Moicano (pictured top right). The co-main event will be for the bantamweight title between champion Merab Dvalishvili (pictured lower left) and challenger Umar Nurmagomedov (pictured lower right).

A fighter’s CC win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. A fighter’s CageCalc+ Score is determined by a variety of factors and is specific to each matchup. The CageCalc+ projection is an estimated win probability based on this statistic. Each fighter’s new CC Ratings after their bouts will be determined by the first CC win probability only.

Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. The numbers above each fighter’s name indicates their posted odds to win on FanDuel Sportsbook as of the posting of these previews.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 311 (Makhachev vs. Moicano) Previews – January 18, 2025

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter

• The original algorithm likes Ulanbekov’s high level experience more than Carpenter’s undefeated record.
• CageCalc+ does give Carpenter the edge as a striker, but nearly every other matrix bends Ulanbekov’s way for a wider gap.
• EDITOR: I think Ulanbekov pulls this out. He has come out flat in big spots before, but he has a decided grappling edge. And, with his team out here for this event, he’ll be extra motivated to start the night with a W.

Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj

• The original algorithm sees two bantamweights with lackluster resumes thus far. Turcios has only won in the UFC by split decision. Sopaj’s only UFC appearance saw him get KO’d. Nonetheless, the Albanian gets the slight edge.
• CageCalc+ sees Sopaj is a much more active grappler and a more prolific finisher. Turcios, on the other hand, is not.
• EDITOR: Sopaj performed admirably on short notice in his debut against a dangerous Vinicius Oliviera. With a full camp, against a less dangerous opponent, this should be a solid first UFC win.

Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov

• The original Cage Calculus sees Gafurov taking two losses to tougher opponents and bouncing back with a win. Nakamura’s dominance over lesser opponents nets him the edge, but not as big as the oddsmakers would have it.
• CageCalc+ is way more bullish on Nakamura. Nakamura is on par with Gafurov as a finisher, but is a far more active striker and grappler, netting him huge advantages in this algorithmic projection.
• EDITOR: Gafurov can pull it off if he’s more active first, but even that got him in trouble against Said Nurmagomedov. I’m just not confident Gafurov can do what he needs to do to get after a guy like Nakamura.

Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez

• Perez has won four straight. Rosa has lost two of her last four (and one was a controversial split decision to Yana Santos). The original algorithm trusts both trends to continue.
• CageCalc+ has this pretty even for most matrices. Perez is the decidedly better grappler, whereas Rosa has a big advantage in the decision matrix. Therefore, CageCalc+ trusts that if this goes the distance, Rosa is likely to take it.
• EDITOR: Better wrestlers often win. If Perez can get Rosa down even once, it could be enough to steal a round. Rosa isn’t that much better in the striking department for her to be this much of a favorite. Roll with the underdog!

Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

• The original algorithm respects Ferreira’s experience against a murderer’s row of opponents. However, Dawson is a prolific finisher and has been more consistent as of late to get the edge here.
• CageCalc+ also has this as closer than many expect. Ferreira has a reach advantage and is the markedly better striker. However, Dawson pulls away with the grappling and submission numbers.
• EDITOR: Dawson’s kryptonite is getting chinned. Ferreira isn’t dangerous enough as a striker (despite his edge in the striking) to put away a guy like Dawson. I don’t see the Brazilian’s path to victory.

Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana

• The original algorithm probably underrates Guskov, as he’s not even in the top 15, despite a big KO over Ryan Spann. Yet, he still has one of the bigger edges on this card.
• CageCalc+ makes it a little closer as Guskov is very one dimensional. He hunts the KO on the feet and that’s about it. Guskov is not going to grapple and he’s not going to win by decision. Thus, CageCalc+ sees some avenues for victory for Elekana, despite giving Guskov the slimmer edge.
• EDITOR: This is a tough circumstance for the newcomer. He needs takedowns and a finish. He likely doesn’t have the cardio to press takedowns for the whole 15 minutes while avoiding Guskov’s KO shot.

Zach Reese vs. Azamat Bekoev

• The original algorithm sees a mid-tier UFC fighter against an LFA champion. Bekoev’s pre-UFC record earns him a high enough starting rating to be a favorite in a spot like this.
• CageCalc+ is less sure. Reese is a knockout guy and will have a big reach advantage against a guy making his UFC debut on short notice. Reese is not far enough behind in the grappling and submission matrices to put Bekoev back over the top. CageCalc+ sees the upset clearly.
• EDITOR: Bekoev is a much more formidable debut fighter. Reese only has a takedown defense of 25 percent. He should be able to find a submission in the first two rounds. Expect the first Ossetian UFC fighter to score a win in his debut.

Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos

• The original algorithm really wants to give the edge to the grizzled vet who, not too long ago, rode a nine fight win streak. Talbott has the more current streak, but has largely beaten bottom feeders.
• CageCalc+ makes this closer for the same reason as the Guskov fight. Talbott is so one dimensional. It’s worked for him, but Barcelos has a definite path to victory if he can avoid being KO’d. Nonetheless, Talbott gets the edge in this bout.
• EDITOR: Talbott should be able to do what Umar Nurmagomedov did before: catch Barcelos with his chin in the air. Barcelos will need to grapple and Talbott can count on it on his way to a knockout blow.

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

• For an algorithm that values experience, it’d be shocking if it didn’t give the UFC’s most active fighter an edge over a guy coming into only his second UFC fight.
• Before the latest update, Holland was actually ahead in the CageCalc+ projection. However, a last minute odds change as enough to tip the model an extra percentage point back to de Ridder. Holland leads all the striking matrices, whereas de Ridder is the better grappler.
• EDITOR: Holland will be easier to take down and submit than Gerald Meerschaert, the middleweight division’s all-time leader in submissions. Yet, that’s exactly what de Ridder did in his UFC debut. Holland should have trouble on the ground for a tough night.

Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac

• The original algorithm values Almeida’s consistency and finishing ability just a bit more than Spivac’s own impressive resume.
• CageCalc+ sees Almeida as just slightly better in most every matrix. The probability matrix is the one that pushes this matchup well over the edge for the Brazilian.
• EDITOR: Almeida and Spivac are pretty strong in the same areas. Almeida’s just stronger. That’s about all there is to it.

Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill

• Prochazka’s title run involved finishes over higher quality opponents. He’s also way more experienced. That gives him the firm advantage in the traditional algorithm.
• CageCalc+ knows if this fight ever goes to the ground, Prochazka is the better fighter. Jamahal Hill is another guy who will never attempt a takedown. The grappling stats are where the Czech former champ pulls away.
• EDITOR: I have to believe Jiri’s worked on his defense. Hill’s not a guy where you can defend a right hook with your face. I believe he has and Prochazka reminds the world why he’s one of the most dangerous 205ers out there (much like the Rakic fight).

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Title Fight Co-Main Event)

• Merab’s a champ on an incredible tear against former champs and high quality opponents. Umar is on a great run, but his most impressive victory is not nearly as high as Merab’s. That’s why the classic algorithm gives the champ the edge.
• CageCalc+ believes this is closer than expected. However, Nurmagomedov takes slight edges in both striking and grappling. And, he’s the more prolific finisher.
• EDITOR: I think Dvalishvili is a live underdog. He’ll be way more challenging for Nurmagomedov than Cory Sandhagen. However, Merab’s lack of finishing ability is concerning for him. Umar might be able to get him out of there eventually, and he certainly won’t be held down for 25 minutes like Sean O’Malley. Expect that the name Nurmagomedov will once again reign atop the MMA world after this co-main event.

Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano (Title Fight Main Event)

• Makhachev is the second-highest rated fighter in the CC ratings. Of course he has the massive edge in the traditional algorithm.
• CageCalc+ also sees a lopsided affair. Moicano’s only edge is that he is typically a far more active striker. He does have a slightly higher submission rate, but Makhachev’s grappling is so high level it cancels all that out and then some.
• EDITOR: Don’t overthink this. This would be one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. Moicano’s a fun story, but he is not built to handle the type of skillset Makhachev brings to the table.

Picture Credit: UFC