The final UFC event of 2024 is in the books! After the dust settled, the oddsmakers at DraftKings predicted more favorites to win than the Cage Calculus editor. Betting favorites won just over 70 percent of UFC fights in 2024. The fighters I predicted to win won roughly 63.4 percent of the time. Rest assured, my subjective theory of the case will adjust to give the oddsmakers a run for their money next year!

In the tables below, you can also see how many wins the Cage Calculus algorithm expected, given the probabilities it generates (for example, if the algorithm gave ten fighters a 60 percent chance of winning, it would only expect six of them to win with those odds). How close the algorithm is to its expected numbers gives a better picture of its accuracy. You can read more about this in our methodology page.

Given the probabilities of each fight, the expected win-loss record of the algorithm would be roughly 296-217, for a hit percentage of about 57.7 percent. The algorithm performed nearly as precisely as expected, producing a final win-loss record of 293-220, for a hit percentage of 57.1 percent. The Cage Calculus algorithm, as currently designed, only produces probabilities, not hard and fast predictions (perhaps a more robust, granular model is in the cards for 2025).

Here is how things stacked up after all completed fight cards from 2024:

July to December

January to June