The Noche UFC card features ten bouts. This post will preview the five fights that comprise the prelim card. The card will be headlined by a bout between top ten contenders in the women’s bantamweight division: Norma “The Immortal” Dumont (pictured above) and former title challenger, Irene Aldana.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 306 Prelim Previews – September 14, 2024

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Aoriqileng

Rosas may indeed be an overhyped young prospect. However, Aoriqileng won’t be the man to fully derail this train (credit to Christian Rodriguez for starting the process). Rosas is a very talented submission artist. Aoriqileng has been submitted thrice in his career, compared to only one submission win. Rosas can use his strengths to his opponent’s weakness.

Joshua Van vs. Edgar Chairez

This is intriguing. Chairez presents some of the same issues Van’s last opponent, Charles Johnson did. Chairez has a significant reach advantage. However, Van has been hovering around the fringes of the flyweight rankings for a bit. If anything, his loss to Johnson should have ensured he is training specifically to avoid a repeat performance. Chairez might be a live dog here, but count on Van having learned his lesson about rangy fighters and use his speed more to his advantage to get the win.

Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza

Last year, Jauregui got bull rushed by Denise Gomes, suffering her first career loss just 20 seconds into that fight. Other than that, Jauregui has looked pretty unstoppable. She already has a sound victory over 14th ranked Iasmin Lucindo. At just 25, Jauregui should be a mainstay in the strawweight rankings soon enough. Souza just doesn’t present any challenges that will give her a hard time if she’s on her game.

Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

Don’t blink. This is an easy favorite for fight of the night. Both men finish fights early. Torres typically varies his finishes, with seven KOs and submissions apiece. Bahamondes, on the other hand, is a pure striker, utilizing his 6’3″ frame to keep opponents at distance and devastate them with his unique kicks. The theory of the case here is that Bahamondes uses his kicks to keep Torres out of range for a takedown. Torres will either try anyway and get caught, or get picked apart en route to a decision win for Bahamondes.

Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont (Featured Prelim)

If you’ve read Cage Calculus long enough, you know that this editor develops an attachment to certain fighters. Dumont is one such fighter. If she lets her hands go and allows herself to be aggressive, she has the potential to be the champion of this division. She’s that good. The hangup is that she often fights cautiously or accepts the clinch too often. her playbook against Aldana should be the same she used to beat Germaine de Randamie. Flurried punches to open the way to a takedown. Dumont is big for this division and can dictate pace on the ground. One area of improvement is being more active and causing damage on the ground once there. Aldana will have a height and range advantage, though. This is why Dumont cannot accept distance striking. If Dumont can pull it off, this would be a statement win and should pave the way for a title shot in the future.

Picture Credit: UFC