The Noche UFC card features ten bouts. This post will preview the five fights that comprise the main card. The card will be headlined by two title fights. The first will be for the women’s flyweight title. It will be the third matchup between champion Alexa Grasso (pictured center left) and former champion Valentina Shevchenko (pictured center right). The card will be capped by a bout between men’s bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley (pictured far left) and Georgian challenger Merab Dvalishvili (pictured far right).

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 306 (O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili) Previews – September 14, 2024

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode’ Osbourne

Both men are prolific finishers. Rodriguez’s finishing ability may be limited by Osbourne’s whopping eight-inch reach advantage. However, Osbourne has been known to be vulnerable to a finish. If Rodriguez can stay disciplined and figure out the timing he needs to get in range, there could be a third round KO possibility for him.

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics

This is another fight of the night contender. Zellhuber looked fantastic against another Argentine fighter, Francisco Prado his last time out. Ribovic’s aggression combined with Zellhuber’s reach and precision advantage should bode well for him. He should keep Ribovics at bay and find a KO blow if Ribovics pushes too hard.

Diego Lopes vs. Brian Ortega

Both men are talented grapplers. However, Lopes holds a clear advantage in the striking department. He should be able to put a pace on Ortega that he’s not been able to manage in his time in the UFC. Lopes should come out quick, trying to keep Ortega off balance. At that point, Ortega’s gas tank might fail him en route to a KO victory in the second or third round for Lopes.

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko (Title Fight Co-Main Event)

Had one judge not scored round 5 of the prior matchup a 10-8 for Grasso, this would be a title defense for Valentina Shevchenko. As it was, Grasso got the draw and kept her belt. That fight was razor thin. One has to wonder if Valentina is past her prime now. However, she’s still fighting at a championship level. When she’s on, there are very few as good as her. Grasso should aim to make this dirty, let her hands go, and even look to get this to the ground. Shevchenko has the striking to outclass Grasso on the feet. Having seen Grasso twice already, she should utilize what she’s learned to avoid prior pitfalls and regain her throne.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili (Title Fight Main Event)

This should be fun. O’Malley is one of the best strikers in the UFC today. Dvalishvili does have a frustrating tendency of leading with his chin on entries. However, he’s somehow avoided being knocked out across his entire career. MMA math rarely works out this way, but if one were to look at the way O’Malley struggled with a guy like Petr Yan, whereas Dvalishvili rag-dolled Yan for five rounds. Dvalishvili is able to withstand a premier striker for five rounds. O’Malley has a little more power, but don’t expect Dvalishvili’s gameplan to vary much. Insane pace combined with relentless takedowns should subdue O’Malley well enough to take the belt by decision.

Picture Credit: UFC