The UFC Abu Dhabi card features thirteen bouts. This post will preview the six fights that comprise the main card. The prelim previews can be found HERE. This card will be headlined by a bout between bantamweight contenders Cory Sandhagen (pictured left) and Umar Nurmagomedov (pictured right). The co-main event will see undefeated Russian prospect Sharabutdin Magomedov take on Polish middleweight, Michal Oleksiejczuk.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Abu Dhabi (Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov) Previews – August 3, 2024

Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener

Alvarez has shown some immense ability to compete with the best of the best at 155. However, he’s struggled on the scales. However, he was able to hit weight for this bout, which should be a barnburner. Brener will be the harder striker, but Alvarez should mitigate that with his five-inch reach advantage. Alvarez is also a very talented striker in his own right and a submission threat. Alvarez has more ways to win here, but only needs one.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Lupita Godinez

Godinez’s most recent defeat to Virna Jandiroba is looking a lot better after Jandiroba dismantled Amanda Lemos her last time out. Dern, on the other hand, is coming off of multiple defeats where she showed otherworldly toughness. Godinez should be able, however, to exploit the striking weaknesses Dern has shown to get a decision win and move up the rankings.

Michael Chiesa vs. Tony Ferguson

It’s sad to see this fight happen now, as both men get up there in age and are far from their primes. These odds are almost beckoning bettors to go with Ferguson, as Chiesa has lost two of his last three fights to a D’Arce choke, Ferguson’s signature move. However, Ferguson has lost so much tread on his tires. Aside from a moment against Michael Chandler, he hasn’t looked close to victory in any of his last seven bouts. Chiesa should be able to get the job done.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Marlon Vera

This is a great bantamweight fight that’ll pit a tough striker (Vera) against a more balanced, versatile fighter (Figueiredo). Figueiredo will have the grappling and wrestling advantage. Vera has looked slow in a lot of his fights until he busts out with a combination that puts his opponents in deep water. Figueiredo should be able to take advantage, avoid the flurry when it comes, and get the fight to the ground, which is his territory.

Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Co-Main Event)

Magomedov is a very talented middleweight, having knockout wins in 11 of his 13 career wins. Oleksiejczuk is a talented boxer, who likely won’t trouble Magomedov with anything on the ground. This should be a standup extravaganza. Oleksiejczuk could change things up by trying to grapple, but ultimately this will come down to whoever lands the bigger shots earlier. That favors the Russian.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Cory Sandhagen (Main Event)

This bout should determine who gets the next title shot at bantamweight after Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili scrap in September at The Sphere. Sandhagen is as talented a striker as there is in this division. At 5’11”, he’s also tall for this weight class. He’ll have to use that to keep the dangerous wrestler, Nurmagomedov away from him. Nurmagomedov is as dangerous a submission threat as his cousin Khabib was before him. He should look to close the distance quickly and impose his will on Sandhagen. He has to avoid the strikes, though, as Bekzat Almakhan almost rocked Nurmagomedov in his last bout. The one wild card might be that Nurmagomedov has never gone to a fourth round in his career. How will his cardio hold up if he has to drag this out to a decision? He has been disciplined enough in his career to trust that, if he can’t get the submission early, he will be able to manage his pace well enough to secure a decision win and earn a title shot later this year or early next year.

Picture Credit: Diaz Twins MMA