The UFC 304 card features fourteen bouts. This post will preview the four fights on the “prelim” card. This card will feature a strawweight bout between British fan favorite “Meatball” Molly McCann (pictured left) and Bruna Brasil (pictured right). The early prelim card previews can be found HERE.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 304 Prelims Previews – July 27, 2024

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio

The Lithuanian Bukauskas has had a new lease on life since his gruesome leg injury against Khalil Rountree Jr. He became Cage Warriors champion and returned to the UFC with two straight wins. The momentum ended in November, as he fell to Vitor Petrino. Prachnio similarly lost to Petrino recently. Prachnio is always game for an upset, but has a disappointing 4-5 in his UFC career. The new-and-improved Bukauskas should handle this challenge.

Caolan Loughran vs. Jake Hadley

Hadley used to fight at flyweight, yet still missed weight in this bout, going up a weight class. Loughran has won every pro fight he’s taken on regular notice. Hadley will likely chase a submission over Loughran, as that’s where his advantage is. However, Loughran is the naturally bigger man and has never been submitted in his career. He should use that to beat Hadley, who must have had a difficult adjustment to 135 pounds.

Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil

McCann will generate some of the biggest hype inside the Manchester arena tomorrow night. She will also look to make this a proper scrap. Brasil is a technical range striker. McCann should try to create as many clinches and takedowns as possible. Unless Brasil is able to land a power shot, it is difficult to see how Brasil is going to stop McCann from executing her gameplan perfectly.

Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda (Featured Prelim)

Wood is one of the most well-balanced fighters in the featherweight division. He is a great technical striker and wrestler. The best shot Pineda is going to have at pulling off this upset is for him to get a submission off his back. He is a sneaky good submission artist. However, with Wood having the edge everywhere else, that is his only route to victory. It’s a narrow one.

Picture Credit: UFC