The UFC 304 card features fourteen bouts. This post will preview the five fights on the main card. This card will feature a bout for the interim heavyweight title between current interim champ Tom Aspinall and contender Curtis Blaydes. It will be capped by a bout for the undisputed welterweight title between champion Leon Edwards (pictured left) and Belal Muhammad (pictured right). Both men are riding double digit unbeaten streaks. The early prelim card previews can be found HERE and the prelim previews HERE.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 304 (Edwards vs. Muhammad 2) Main Card Previews – July 27, 2024

Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze

We’ve seen Allen handle the best strikers (Max Holloway) and the best grapplers (Movsar Evloev). Despite coming up short in those bouts, Allen held his own against the cream of the crop and is still lurking on the fringes of the top 5. Chikadze struggled mightily against Calvin Kattar before securing a win against unranked Alex Caceres. Chikadze will once again look to move up, but Allen has the same high-level set of skills that make him a nightmare for Chikadze.

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues

This one ought to be fun. Duncan is a fantastic kicker and excels at range. Rodrigues will have the advantage in the wrestling and can also turn any fight into a dogfight. Rodrigues is going to be a much harder out than Duncan’s more recent opponents. Rodrigues can hold his own on the feet and use that to get close and create the dirty fight that gives him a clear advantage.

Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett

We may finally get to see what Pimblett is made of. He’s been knocking on the door of a fraud check for some time now. Green, for his part, is a proven entity and still cooking at 37 years old. Green has been chinny in his losses and is also a bit of a liability on the ground against a seasoned submission threat like Pimblett. It feels like things are setting up for Pimblett to edge one out in front of an electric home crowd.

Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes (Interim Title Fight Co-Main Event)

I do not understand these odds. Aspinall was near even with Blaydes in the odds the last time they fought, and Blaydes won. Granted, it was due to a freak leg injury. However, wins over Marcin Tybura and Sergei Pavlovich may have moved the needle a bit, but not to get Aspinall to 4-to-1. Blaydes will have the superior wrestling in this bout and needs to avoid the power and speed of Aspinall to get in close and secure top position. Blaydes also has plenty of KO power of his own. Blaydes is a live underdog and, when you consider Aspinall may already be looking past this bout to a potential future megafight with Jon Jones or Alex Pereira, the formula may just be right for Blaydes to finally realize UFC gold in his 19th UFC appearance.

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad (Title Fight Main Event)

This is another rematch of a fight that never really happened. An eye poke by Edwards ended their last bout in a no contest. Edwards was winning prior to the stoppage. However, people forget Muhammad was taking that bout on short notice after Khamzat Chimaev pulled out. Muhammad has also gotten better since then, demonstrating insane pace and durability, along with suffocating wrestling (likely courtesy of his now training with the Nurmagomedovs) and improved striking. Edwards is one of the best strikers in the UFC. However, it remains to be seen if he will be able to keep up with Muhammad’s pace for a full five rounds. Muhammad may be being underestimated. After tomorrow night, it may not happen again.

Picture Credit: Diaz Twins MMA