The UFC 304 card features fourteen bouts. This post will preview the first five fights on the “early prelim” card. The early prelim card will feature a bout between ranked flyweights Muhammad Mokaev (pictured left) and Manel Kape (pictured right).

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 304 Early Prelims Previews – July 27, 2024

Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean

Ardelean will make her UFC debut on short notice here. She’s on a five-fight win streak after starting her MMA career 4-5. Her last loss came in 2016 in the TopFC promotion against then-relatively unknown prospect… Zhang Weili. Bannon is a very diverse fighter and has the ability to stay at range and pick Ardelean apart. Going with the Irish fighter given the late notice for Ardelean and Bannon’s more consistent high-level experience.

Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski

Brzeski is pretty chippy as an underdog. Last time out, he spoiled the debut of Valter Walker as a +200 underdog. Parkin, however, is undefeated for a reason, and has cruised through his first three UFC fights (all unanimous decisions). It’s unclear whether Brzeski is a step up in competition for the Brit. Expect Parkin to take home another win on home soil.

Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie

Don’t expect this fight to go the distance. The last time either man won or lost by decision was over three years ago. Patterson is a submission artist, whereas Crosbie is a one-punch KO threat. However, it’s Patterson’s ability to also be dangerous on the feet that will be the X-factor and deliver him the win.

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape

This probably has the most bad blood of any fight on the whole card. Mokaev is a submission artist who is turning into a fighter who can grind out tough decisions as well. With the exception of an armbar scare against Alex Perez, he’s been about as dominant as you can be. Kape is a power puncher, possibly with the most KO power of anyone in the flyweight division. However, everything here favors Mokaev. Mokaev has been able to take down all of his opponents and not one has really been able to do much about it. Expect him to respect the power of Kape and seize the one opening he’s given.

Preston Parsons vs. Oban Elliott

Both men are versatile in this one. Parsons might have a slight advantage in the wrestling and Elliott on the feet. With Elliott gifted enough in grappling, he should be able to keep this mostly on the feet, find a rhythm, and cruise to a decision win. Conversely, both men could swing for the fences early and it’s a coin flip. Either way, Elliott seems like a live underdog with more paths to victory.

Picture Credit: Telecom Asia