The UFC Denver card features twelve bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. The card will be headlined by a women’s flyweight bout between former two-time strawweight champion Rose Namajunas (pictured left) and rising flyweight contender Tracy Cortez (pictured right). The co-main event will feature welterweights Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Denver (Namajunas vs. Cortez) Previews – July 13, 2024

Evan Elder vs. Darrius Flower

Both men were added late to this card to fill it out a bit. Both sit very low in the lightweight ranks and get to fight up a class at welterweight. Flowers has just struggled so much since joining the UFC, it’s hard to see him get into the win column under these conditions.

Andre Petroski vs. Josh Fremd

Going just based off strength of schedule, Petroski has done more against a much higher caliber of opponent than Fremd. The oddsmakers see a tossup. The edge should be going to Petroski.

Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova

Agapova is going to want this more. She’s not fought in almost two years since her defeat to Gillian Robertson. She has been agitating to get a fight booked and now has one. With an 80 percent finish rate in her career, she has the skills to take this one and re-assert herself in the flyweight division. It’s taken someone in or near the rankings to beat Agapova in the past. Santos hasn’t shown she’s quite there yet. This is a live underdog if there ever was one.

Montel Jackson vs. Da’Mon Blackshear

Jackson is a solid 7-2 in the UFC, whereas Blackshear is 2-2-1. Jackson is on the cusp of entering Cage Calculus’ top 15 in a stacked bantamweight division. Even as a -150 favorite, he’s being severely underrated here.

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline

This bout comes about after Viviane Araujo dropped out a couple weeks ago. Kline steps in as a solid prospect out of Cage Fury with fantastic jiujitsu. However, the nature of this assignment may prove too tough for a UFC debut. She’s fighting up a weight class on short notice against a fighter who’s won three of her last four in Jasudavicius. This pick is not an indictment of Kline, rather an assessment of the situation.

Joshua Van vs. Charles Johnson

Van has an undefeated record in the UFC, yet has had an unlucky streak of four straight fight cancellations. Not a single one of those was because of him. Johnson has had some success as the underdog lately, but Van is looking for his shot at the flyweight rankings. Someone’s run is coming to a close and it’s not going to be Van’s.

Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage

Brundage has homefield advantage, being that he trains in Colorado already. Further, he’s facing a fighter in Alhassan who is pretty well known for gassing himself out. That might be exacerbated in the Denver altitude. If Brundage can avoid the one-punch KO power in round one, he should coast to a decision win or get a submission via his wrestling in the later rounds.

Christian Rodriguez vs. Julian Erosa

This is another case of wrestler vs. striker, where the striker does not have the best takedown defense. Unless Erosa can find his first KO in three-and-a-half years, Rodriguez should have a decided edge in this one. Erosa does have many submissions to his name, but Rodriguez’s superior wrestling should ensure he stays on top in any grappling exchanges.

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa

Bonfim is a dangerous man. He lost his undefeated record last time out, but he’s got an excellent submission game that will see him go far in this organization. Loosa, on the other hand, questionably stopped a fight where he was getting beaten by Bryan Battle due to an eye poke. Bonfim is much more of a threat than Battle and provided there are no eye pokes, it should be Bonfim by submission.

Jean Silva vs. Drew Dober

Which Dober shows up? If Dober comes out with a veteran gameplan, this should be a relatively easy assignment. He can wear Silva, the usual featherweight, down with wrestling and leg kicks. However, if Dober gets into a firefight, this is the coin flip the oddsmakers seem to think it will be. Dober can crack with the best of them. However, he often gets caught himself. At this stage, look for Dober to do what he can to win, even at the expense of being a bit more entertaining (it should be fun nonetheless).

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov (Co-Main Event)

Both men are distance strikers. Salikhov is a liitle more powerful, while Ponzinibbio is more technical. Watching Salikhov’s fights, you’ll see a man who moves surprisingly quickly for a 40 year-old. He should surprise some people in this one. However, he should pursue a finish, as a decision might benefit the Argentinian, Ponzinibbio. Another live underdog.

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez (Main Event)

Namajunas has looked fine since she lost her strawweight belt. She fought Manon Fiorot to a tight decision, which might have gone her way had she not dislocated her finger in round one (that loss looked a lot better after Fiorot dismantled Erin Blanchfield recently). Namajunas then went out and beat Amanda Ribas soundly. Cortez is an undefeated 5-0 in the UFC. However, she has zero finishes over those five fights and only has one win over someone currently in the top 15 (the aforementioned #15 ranked contender Jasudavicius). This is a massive step up and on short notice. Namajunas should demonstrate there are levels to this game. If Cortez is going to go five rounds with the former champ, it likely won’t go well.

Picture Credit: UFC