The UFC 303 card features thirteen bouts. This post will preview the eight fights that comprise both the early prelim and the prelim cards. These cards will feature a bout of ranked strawweight contenders Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Gillian Robertson (pictured above). It will be capped by a matchup of middleweights, Joe Pyfer and Marc-Andre Barriault.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 303 Prelim Previews – June 29, 2024

Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira

This is a mere case of Simon having been at the upper echelons of the division and Oliveira has not. This is a major step down in competition for Simon. He should handle and get back to business trying to re-assert himself in the top 15.

Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez

The only reason the algorithm has this one this close is because it doesn’t have a lot to go on, as Tsuruya makes his UFC debut. Even then, he’s a favorite against Hernandez, who’s not really been able to get much momentum at all in this division.

Martin Buday vs. Andrei Arlovski

It feels like Arlovski’s been on borrowed time for a while. The former champ was able to make it work for a bit. After three straight losses and a bout against a legit future contender in the Slovakian, Buday, this could be the swan song for the UFC’s longest tenured fighter.

Gillian Robertson vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Waterson comes in having lost four in a row. One-third of her career losses have come by submission. Robertson is one of the greatest female finishers of all-time, with nine of her 13 wins coming by submission (another two by KO). Two trends seem destined to continue in this one. Waterson seems another potential retirement on this card.

Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri

This is about as straightforward as they come. Talbott is a fascinating prospect in his “fighting lower tier guys to gain experience” phase. Dana White knows they have a talent in Talbott. Not going to give him a big challenge this early on.

Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva

This one will be close. However, Jourdain’s experience and height advantage should lend him the edge. Also worth noting that Silva missed weight by a pound-and-a-half. Something to look out for to see how it impacts the fight.

Andre Fili vs. Cub Swanson

Swanson’s got a bit more in the tank, even at 40. However, Fili is a very fast fighter and is not a good matchup for the veteran. Swanson could keep going, but he’s also worth putting on retirement watch for this card.

Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (Featured Prelim)

Honestly wondering if the hype around Joe Pyfer is real or is only manufactured because of his DWCS performance where no one else on the card was able to do anything of note. His humbling at the hands of Jack Hermansson was telling. I expect Barriault, who fought hard against Chris Curtis his last time out, to do the same and outclass him on the feet, mitigating the power.

Picture Credit: MMA Junkie