The UFC 303 card features thirteen bouts. This post will preview the five fights that comprise the main card. You can find the prelim previews HERE. This card features a bout between ranked welterweight contenders, Ian Machado Garry and Michael “Venom” Page. Its co-main is a featherweight bout between veteran former title contender Brian “T-City” Ortega and up-and-coming contender Diego Lopes. The main event will feature light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira (pictured right) defending his belt against former champion Jiri Prochazka (pictured left).

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 303 (Pereira vs. Prochazka 2) Main Card Previews – June 29, 2024

Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page

I could honestly see Page pulling his “dancing around the octagon” stunt that he used to beat Kevin Holland again. However, I think Garry will move forward enough to mitigate that. Garry’s also a little more powerful than Holland. See the Irishman getting this one done.

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson

Chiasson will have quite the height and reach advantage in this one. That should quell Silva’s ability to get things into the clinch. Even so, Chiasson showed she could do well in the clinch in her bout against Norma Dumont (even though this editor maintains Dumont should have won that bout on the judge’s scorecards). There’s a reason Chiasson closed the gap in betting odds.

Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Smith

Smith keeps proving doubters wrong, but it feels like he’s due for a letdown. He finds ways to win, but Dolidze is going to come in hungry and he’ll likely be a little fresher. Smith hasn’t really posed a KO threat in some time. Dolidze can utilize this to take chances on the feet to score a KO of his own.

Diego Lopes vs. Dan Ige (Co-Main Event)

This has to be the shortest of short notice bouts. Ige taking the bout on three HOURS notice. This would be a close, entertaining fight on regular terms, but given Ige’s lack of preparation or camp, Lopes is a tough task.

Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka (Title Fight Main Event)

I’ll admit I’ve been doubtful of Pereira in the past and been proved laughably wrong. However, people forget how dangerous Prochazka is. Prochazka can learn from his past mistakes (early stoppage aside) to break in past the defenses of the very one-dimensional Pereira. The belt should be heading back to Czechia.

Picture Credit: @DiazTwinsMMA