The UFC Saudi Arabia card features eleven bouts. This post will preview the five fights that comprise the main card. You can read the previews for the prelim card HERE. The card will feature a matchup of two top five heavyweight contenders in fellow Russians Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov. It will be headlined by former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker (pictured left), squaring off against Dagestani prospect Ikram Aliskerov (pictured right).

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Saudi Arabia (Whittaker vs. Aliskerov) Main Card Previews – June 22, 2024

Johnny Walker vs. Volkan Oezdemir

Both fighters have had a tough stretch over the last four years. Since 2020, Walker is 4-4 and Oezdemir is 2-3. However, the strength of schedule each has fought has been high. Against competition that’s not top five material, both men have faired very well. Now, they’ll face each other to see who can try once again to break through. Both men possess immense power that manifests in different ways. Walker is a speedy wild man in the cage. Oezdemir is slower and more deliberate picking at distance, waiting for the lights out shot to earn the win, but his style lends itself to being able to win a decision if need be. Before his win over Anthony Smith last year, Walker’s last decision win was in 2018. Both men will be seeking a knockout, but Oezdemir can be careful enough knowing he can win a decision. This will be a close bout, but Oezdemir has a number of ways he can win, whereas Walker will likely need to hunt an early KO.

Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Antonio Trocoli

Magomedov was originally slated to face Joiltin Lutterbach, but Lutterbach bizarrely admitted to steroid use, confessing his signing to the UFC was a surprise. The change shouldn’t deter Magomedov, who stormed through Bruno Silva in his UFC debut back in October. Conventional wisdom says Magomedov’s partial blindness in his right eye will eventually limit his rise, but no one’s stopped him yet. Not only that, but ten of his 12 pro wins have come by KO. Atypical of a Dagestani fighter, Magomedov is a Muay Thai practitioner. It will be a tough task for Trocoli, who was meant to take on Aliskerov on short notice last week before he dropped out to take the main event slot here. Now, he takes on this bout on short notice after Lutterbach got suspended. Trocoli is an interesting prospect with multiple wins by KO and submission. However, the talent discrepancy is real in this fight, added to the fact that Trocoli had mere days to prepare, the pick is clear.

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez

If I had done these previews a few days ago, I likely would have picked Gastelum. He’s faced some of the best of the best at middleweight and sparked out a bit after losing his title fight against Israel Adesanya. His first trip down to welterweight did not go so well, being submitted by Sean Brady. However, Rodriguez presented more of a favorable matchup. But, Gastelum announced some struggles during his fight camp and said he wouldn’t come anywhere close to making the 171 pound welterweight (non-title fight) limit. Rodriguez is a versatile fighter who is also good at grinding out decisions, but he might be coming towards the end of his career. Given Gastelum’s struggles, this strikes a lot like the Paulo Costa-Marvin Vettori fight a while back. On paper, Costa looked like a favorite, but given an undisciplined fight camp, Vettori was able to take the win handily. The editorial theory of the case is that this fight goes down much the same way.

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov (Co-Main Event)

What a banger of a co-main event this will be! Let’s first assess the gulf between the algorithm’s projection and the oddsmakers. Pavlovich only has two marquee wins in the UFC: Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes. Lewis’s rating had already dropped significantly after being finished by Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa. After Pavlovich had been finished by Tom Aspinall, he fell out of the Cage Calculus top five. Volkov, on the other hand, has been very active and very adept at getting finishes. With wins in four of his last five, Volkov eclipsed his fellow Russian in the rankings. Honestly, I buy it. Pavlovich has been very boom or bust. In his last nine fights, he’s either won by first round KO or lost by first round KO. Volkov has shown versatility, being able to finish fights in the second round. He even secured the very rare Ezekiel Choke submission over Tai Tuivasa (only the third UFC fighter ever to do so). I think Volkov stays on the outside and even utilizes some wrestling to sap the power of Pavlovich in round one. From there, he should be able to outpoint him (similar to what he was doing to Derrick Lewis before getting caught with ten seconds left) to a decision or get a finish of his own. Volkov is a live underdog.

Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov (Main Event)

Whittaker has one of the best jabs in the UFC. He’s a talented striker. With the exception of Israel Adesanya and Dricus Du Plessis, no one’s bested him since Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson did it at UFC 170 in 2014. With the title picture at middleweight as muddled as ever, this is an opportunity to go on yet another run to reclaim the title that used to be his. In his way is Aliskerov, who’s only had two fights in the UFC thus far. However, both ended by KO inside the first round. Aliskerov is a powerful striker who also happens to be a four-time world champion in combat sambo. He is as dangerous a prospect as there is right now. We’ve seen top-ranked veterans shrug off lower ranked (or, in this case, unranked) prospects before, showing “there are levels” to this game. However, Aliskerov’s superior wrestling will force Whittaker to respect the threat of the takedown, preventing him from opening up his striking, his best weapon. The signs are there for Aliskerov to upend the division and upset a top four opponent in just his third UFC fight.

Picture Credit: @DiazTwinsMMA