The UFC Saudi Arabia card features eleven bouts. This post will preview the six fights that comprise the prelim card. The prelim card will feature the Road to the UFC finale between Chinese prospect Long Xiao and South Korean prospect, Chang Ho Lee. It will also see a high-level welterweight matchup between Rinat Fakhretdinov and Nicolas Dalby. It will be capped by a matchup of lightweights looking to break into the rankings: Nasrat Haqparast (pictured above) and Jared Gordon.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Saudi Arabia (Whittaker vs. Aliskerov) Prelim Previews – June 22, 2024

Long Xiao vs. Chang Ho Lee

After watching each of these fighters’ paths to this bout, it’s puzzling why Xiao is the favorite (even if it is a slim margin). Lee managed to finish both of his opponents via ground and pound en route to this finals appearance on Road to the UFC. Meanwhile, Xiao won by a split decision in the quarterfinals and majority decision in the semis. Lee has a higher career finish percentage as well. The only discernible advantage you can see in Xiao is his submission ability. However, Lee is no stranger to submission himself. Going with the Korean to solidify a spot on the UFC roster.

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Ribeiro ran into Mingyang Zhang in his UFC debut. Zhang was riding a nine-fight win streak coming into that bout and kept rolling through Ribeiro with a first round KO. Similarly, Gadzhiyasulov is riding a nine-fight win streak coming into this one (he has an 8-0 record, but another win in the Khiza Fight League is not recognized because of issues with the promotion). Gadzhiyasulov, like most Dagestan-born fighters, has a combat sambo background. Yet, most of his wins have come by KO. He’s a versatile fighter now fighting out of Bahrain. He should be an exciting addition to the light heavyweight division, and should get his first win here.

Muin Gafurov vs. Kyung Ho Kang

Gafurov, the former LFA bantamweight champion has had a tough road in the UFC thus far. He lost a decision to John Castaneda in his debut. However, he came into his second bout the favorite against the dangerous bantamweight contender Said Nurmagomedov. Gafurov rushed in, trying to make too much happen, and was submitted in the first round. He likely won’t have the same kind of trouble this go around. Kang is now 36 years old and is also coming off a loss to Castaneda. Kang is typically a submission threat, but only has one in the last five years. If Gafurov’s learned his lesson about rushing in, he should be able to secure his first UFC win.

Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Nicolas Dalby

Fakhretdinov has yet to taste defeat in the UFC, but his last bout was a disappointing draw to veteran Elizeu Zaleski.Fakhretdinov has the potential to be a dangerous force in the welterweight division. With 11 KOs and seven submissions to his name, he can get the job done any way. However, “Danish Dynamite” is riding a four-fight streak. The last one gave Gabriel Bonfim his first loss in a bout where Dalby came in as a nearly five-to-one underdog. Dalby can’t be counted out. This will be a good one for sure, though the smart money is on the Russian to get the job done.

Muhammad Naimov vs. Felipe Lima

Naimov made a name for himself as the first Tajik fighter to fight in the UFC. He’s not let his country down. Three win, two finishes, no losses so far. After Melsik Baghdasaryan dropped out of this planned bout, Oktagon MMA’s bantamweight champion Felipe Lima stepped up on short notice. Lima is riding a 12-fight win streak dating back to October 2015. Lima will have a wrestling and speed advantage, whereas Naimov will have a size and striking advantage. Naimov should be able to use the size to mitigate Lima’s wrestling. Once on the feet, Naimov should be able to secure a KO, or wear Lima down, considering he hasn’t had a full camp. The odds are shifting heavily on this one, but right now, Lima sits as the slim favorite. We don’t think this gives nearly enough respect to Naimov. Look for him to prove the oddsmakers wrong.

Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jared Gordon (Featured Prelim)

These are two men who’ve been circling the rankings for some time, but can’t quite seem to break in. Gordon lost a robbery decision to Paddy Pimblett back in December 2022. He then suffered a No Contest after a clash of heads knocked him out against Bobby Green. Finally, he broke through and retired Mark O. Madsen by KO. Gordon doesn’t typically finish fights, but is adept at grinding out a decision. Similarly, after losing to Dan Hooker and the aforementioned Green, Haqparast has rattled off three straight wins, with the most recent being his first finish win in nearly five years. In a fight that will likely go the distance and stay on the feet, Haqparast is the younger fighter with a four-inch reach advantage. He is built for a fight like this.

Picture Credit: ESPN