The UFC Vegas 93 card features eleven bouts. This post will preview the six fights that comprise the main card. You can read the previews for the prelim card HERE. The main card will be headlined by a flyweight bout between former title contender Alex Perez (pictured right) and undefeated Japanese contender, Tatsuro Taira.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Vegas 93 (Perez vs. Taira) Main Card Previews – June 15, 2024

Josh Quinlan vs. Adam Fugitt

The only bout on this card taking place above 145 pounds kicks off the main card. This is another instance of one fighter having a distinct advantage on the feet (Quinlan) and another with the advantage in the ground game (Fugitt). It typically only takes one takedown to put a striker in all sorts of trouble. Given the algorithm also likes Fugitt’s resume in this bout, this is a decent underdog to get behind.

Asu Almabaev vs. Jose Johnson

Almabaev has not lost a pro fight since April 1, 2017. He brings a suffocating wrestling approach to this flyweight division that has vaulted him to #8 in the CC rankings already. He is as promising a prospect as this division has. Johnson’s only hope is in his striking and reach advantage. However, Johnson has struggled mightily with takedown defense. That just can’t happen with a wrestler/grappler of Almabaev’s quality. Almabaev by submission.

Garrett Armfield vs. Brady Hiestand

Armfield lost his UFC debut on very short notice, but impressed with the grit he showed against the dangerous David Onama. Since going back to bantamweight and having a full fight camp, he’s been even more impressive, knocking out Toshiomi Kazama and then scoring an upset over Brad Katona. Hiestand, similarly, lost his debut on The Ultimate Fighter Season 29 finale to Ricky Turcios via a tight split decision. He has since gotten a shot in the UFC and has rattled off two straight wins. Look for Armfield to overwhelm Hiestand with striking volume and to keep Hiestand from getting anything going in either his own striking or wrestling.

Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida

This is the point in the night where fans have to decide between promising prospect or tried and true veteran. Cuamba is still looking for his first UFC win. Both men came into the UFC having won eight of their last nine fights. Cuamba lost a tight decision, whereas Almeida came away with a TKO win. Almeida at one point cracked the CC top 15 at featherweight. However, after two straight losses, he’s fallen out of the ranks. One thing is for sure, this bout likely won’t see the judges, as both men have high finishing rates. Both posture as KO artists, but Almeida also has a decent submission game in his back pocket. That should force Cuamba to have to defend two fronts, opening up Almeida’s striking game enough to get the KO.

Miles Johns vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (Co-Main Event)

Another certified banger coming at bantamweight in this co-main event. Johns has looked great since suffering his second UFC loss. He’s become more disciplined and has fought out some decisions, rather than winging his punches. He’s won three straight (though one was overturned to a No Contest). Andrade, despite being 38, is still able to hang with the elite of the division. It’s been ten years since he was defeated by someone not in the CC top 15 bantamweight rankings and that was well before we were doing rankings. It takes high level competition to beat him, even now at 38. He’s got 20 KOs to his name and will look to do the same to Johns, who would likely like to ride out a decision over his older opponent. However, Andrade just beat out a younger Cody Stamann en route to a decision win his last time out. Andrade is being written off for his age, but that could be what makes him most dangerous in this one.

Tatsuro Taira vs. Alex Perez (Main Event)

There was a bit of shuffling around to finally land on this matchup. Taira was initially scheduled to face Joshua Van and Perez scheduled to take on fellow ranked flyweight Tagir Ulanbekov. An opponent swap took place to make this main event (good thing, too, as Ulanbekov missed weight for his bout with Van and it was canceled). Taira is an impressive prospect at flyweight and has displayed finishing ability on the feet and on the ground. In his five UFC bouts, he has two submission wins, two decision wins, and one knockout win. He can do it everywhere. Perez, for his part, unwrote his career obituary by starching Matheus Nicolau his last time out. He’s now back in the top five and ready to contend for the flyweight belt again. However, he’s shown a tendency to give up his neck, as two of his last three losses have been by submission. That should be all Taira needs to take advantage of.

Picture Credit: UFC