The UFC Vegas 93 card features eleven bouts. This post will preview the five fights that comprise the prelim card. The prelim card will feature the second UFC bout for undefeated Swedish strawweight Josefine Knutsson (pictured above). It will be headlined by a flyweight bout between Nate Maness and Jimmy Flick.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Vegas 93 (Perez vs. Taira) Prelim Previews – June 15, 2024

Josefine Knutsson vs. Julia Polastri

Knutsson is a top prospect at strawweight. Training at the same gym as Khamzat Chimaev and Alexander Gustafsson has given her some top tier skills early in her career. She’s an elite striker, who dominates opponents. However, she only has one finish. Polastri, on the other hand, has a finish rate above 50 percent in 12 career wins. Polastri does not have a skill advantage here, but her route to victory will be avoiding letting Knutsson get too technical. She has to rush in. The longer this goes, the easier it’ll be for Knutsson. Wouldn’t bet against the Swede just yet.

Melquizael Costa vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Costa is a stunningly quick striker. His 1-2 UFC record doesn’t tell the whole story. His a versatile, talented fighter who has become a watched prospect in the UFC for a reason. However, he has trouble once the fight gets to the ground. This is something Nuerdanbieke has a wealth of experience with, given his 50 pro fights at just the age of 30. Costa may have more talent on paper, but Nuerdanbieke is strong where he needs to be to match up well against the Brazilian.

Jeka Saragih vs. Westin Wilson

Saragih did not let his loss to Anshul Jubli in his UFC debut deter him. The Indonesian has staggering power for the featherweight division. He avenged his first loss by KO’ing Lucas Alexander in just 91 seconds in his second UFC bout. Saragih was a nearly four-to-one underdog in that one. His odds will be much improved, as Wilson currently sits as Cage Calculus’ lowest rated featherweight. Wilson has been the victim of two first round KOs in both of his first two UFC fights. Unfortunately, this matchup does not look headed towards a different outcome.

Gabriella Fernandes vs. Carli Judice

Fernandes is still looking for her first UFC win after two tries. After two straight submission wins made her the LFA interim flyweight champ, she’s dropped two decisions since moving to the UFC. Judice is a rare entity in this division, a legitimate power puncher. All three of her pro wins are first round KOs. However, Fernandes has never been finished. She should be able to use her submission ability to get things to the ground and tire out Judice. Judice should either swing for the fences early or try to stay careful at distance to avoid the clinch or the takedown. Neither path looks entirely promising.

Nate Maness vs. Jimmy Flick (Featured Prelim)

Maness has done excellently in the UFC when he’s not facing someone fighting out of Dagestan. His three most recent UFC wins have been by finish. Maness can certainly make a nice home for himself here at flyweight if he keeps using his combination of precision striking with a sneaky good submission game properly. Flick, on the other hand, knows what he’s coming with. The man is a submission artist, with 15 of his 17 pro wins coming by submission. He’s an all-or-nothing guy chasing those submissions, as six of his seven pro losses have come by knockout. As long as Maness avoids ending up on the ground with Flick (other than knocking him down), he should find good success on the feet. Easier said than done, but that certainly feels how this fight is going down.

Picture Credit: Daniel Schalander