The UFC 302 card features twelve bouts. This post will preview the four fights on the prelim card. The prelim card will feature the a ranked matchup of heavyweight contenders Jailton Almeida (pictured left) and Alexandr Romanov (pictured right). It will be headlined by a middleweight bout between Brazilian Cesar Almeida and Russian veteran Roman Kopylov. You can see our previews for the early prelims HERE.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 302 Prelims Previews – June 1, 2024

Jake Matthews vs. Phil Rowe

Despite being only 29 years old, this will be Matthews’ 20th walk to the UFC octagon. Meanwhile, Rowe, at 33 years old, will be making just his sixth UFC appearance. Matthews has shown ultimate promise as a prospect, but has not been consistent at all, having alternated wins and losses over his last six bouts. Matthews has the benefit of being young and having a wealth of high-level experience. At some point, those two traits have to connect for Matthews to make a run at the welterweight top 15. Call it a hunch, but this card might be the start of that run. Rowe’s a solid opponent who will test Matthews enough, but hasn’t showcase anything spectacular enough to believe he can be a threat to the Australian.

Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki

Joe Solecki will be going out looking for a submission. That’s his style. That’s his advantage. However, Grant Dawson is no stranger to the submission game himself, having notched 13 over his pro career. Dawson seemed destined for the top 15 before getting caught by a wild-swinging Bobby Green his last time out in a main event bout. He’ll look to recover in this one and elevate himself in the CC rankings and resume his assault on the UFC lightweight rankings.

Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov

Almeida is as talented as they come. He was ready to cement his shot at the [interim] title against Curtis Blaydes earlier this year. However, a series of hammer fists and elbows from th clinch destroyed that hope. It’s back to the drawing board for the Brazilian former light heavyweight. Romanov also had a bit of a fall from grace after losing his undefeated record against Marcin Tybura and then getting knocked out by Alexander Volkov. Almeida is a suffocating grappler who does have knockout power, having finished all but one of his pro wins (despite fans who just started paying attention thinking him boring). Romanov does not have the skills on the feet or the ground to keep up with Almeida. His only hope is to swing for the fences and catch a lucky shot on the chin. Wouldn’t bet on it.

Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov (Featured Prelim)

Fans should be excited for this high-level matchup of striking specialists. Almeida will be making his second appearance in the UFC and despite only having five pro fights under his belt, has become a highly touted prospect in the organization. Kopylov just had a four-fight win streak snapped by ranked middleweight Athony Hernandez. Kopylov does not have any wrestling to speak of, but thankfully for him, neither does Almeida. This should stay on the feet. People forget how close Kopylov was to cracking the top 15. With a chance to bounce back against a relatively inexperienced fighter who plays to his strengths, Kopylov should not be the underdog here, however slight.

Picture Credit: Champinon