The UFC 302 card features twelve bouts. This post will preview the five fights on the main card. The card will be headlined by a bout for the lightweight title between champion Islam Makhachev (pictured far left) and veteran former interim champion Dustin Poirier (pictured far right). It will also feature a bout between middleweight contender Paulo Costa (pictured center right) and former champion Sean Strickland (picture center left). You can see our previews for all the prelims HERE and HERE.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 302 (Makhachev vs. Poirier) Main Card Previews – June 1, 2024

Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos

Brown is one of the longest strikers in the division. He’s a tall, rangy fighter. He has struggled with fighters who present a submission threat, but that doesn’t seem to be the case here. Zaleski only has three to his name and has mustered out some tight decisions recently. At 37, Zaleski’s ability to compete with strikers of Brown’s caliber is waning. Expect Brown to find his range and look for the KO early in the second round.

Alex Morono vs. Niko Price

Morono is nearly a 3-to-1 favorite in this one. However, this fight has happened before and Price came away victorious. Price is one of the most erratic fighters in the UFC which lends itself to a boom or bust result. Lately, it’s been bust. Morono, however, is not a prolific finisher, attributing ten of his pro wins to decision. It’s been over three years since he logged a KO. That should yield Price ample time to find his KO shot. Look for Price to get back in the win column in this one.

Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Holland was humbled by a fighter he couldn’t catch his last time out. He should have no such problems in this one. Both men are standup fighters of different styles. Oleksiejczuk is a boxer who fights well in the clinch with dirty boxing. Holland stands at range and catches guys with heavy power at the end of his punches. If Oleksiejczuk can close the distance, that should yield an advantage. The Polish fighter’s power should not be underestimated either, having 14 KOs to his name. He is vulnerable to submissions, but Holland shouldn’t present much of an issue there. Oleksiejczuk is a love underdog in this one.

Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa (Co-Main Event)

This ought to be good. The talk surrounding this fight is worth the price of admission alone. However, in the octagon, this figures to be a much simpler matter. Strickland is a fighter whose strengths neutralize Costa’s. Strickland is so good at defending striking, becoming almost impossible to hit cleanly. Costa can wing it, but unless he gets lucky with a haymaker, it’ll be hard for him to break through Strickland’s shell. Also, despite Costa’s solid record and high ranking, he does not hold any victories over anyone currently on the UFC roster. Costa will make the fight fun, but Strickland can do what he does best en route to a victory.

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier (Title Fight Main Event)

What a fight for the main event! Islam Makhachev is the UFC’s and Cage Calculus’ number one ranked pound-for-pound fighter. He has taken Khabib Nurmagomedov’s relentless grappling approach and added some dangerous striking to the mix. Poirier is a knockout artist in his own right, having flatlined Benoit Saint-Denis to earn this shot. This will be Poirier’s third shot at undisputed lightweight gold. It could be his last. The wild card here could be the UFC’s new gloves. They are thinner, meaning punches will hit a bit harder, giving the advantage to the striking heavy Poirier. However, Poirier does not have great takedown defense and, as we’ve seen, can fall in love with his guillotine choke, leaving him on the ground against top tier grapplers. Makhachev is perhaps the best grappler there is. Charles Oliveira, the record holder for most UFC submissions, could not hang with him on the ground and ended up getting choked out himself. If Makhachev gets Poirier down once, that could be it. Poirier needs to end the fight before it gets there. That’s not a safe bet. Even if the fight does stay on the feet, Poirier will have to respect the takedown the whole time, meanwhile Makhachev is a solid striker himself, coming off a headkick KO over Alexander Volkanovski. Makhachev is the best there is and will soon be able to make a case that he’s the best there’s ever been. Expect he’ll add another ruby to his belt in this one.

Picture Credit: UFC