The UFC 302 card features twelve bouts. This post will preview the first three fights on the “early prelim” card. The early prelim card will feature the return of Mickey Gall to the UFC welterweight division to fight Bassil Hafez, making his second walk to the octagon. It will also feature Cage Calculus’ ninth-ranked women’s bantamweight fighter, the Argentinian Ailin Perez (pictured above), facing off against Panamanian bantamweight Joselyne Edwards.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 302 Early Prelims Previews – June 1, 2024

Andre Lima vs. Mitch Raposo

It’s difficult to win in your UFC debut, especially on a big stage like this. That is what Raposo will be trying to do coming in to this bout to open UFC 302. Raposo started his career as a submission artist, but has strung together three straight KO wins to earn him a UFC contract. Lima will get a chance to show what he can do without being bitten by his opponent. Lima remains undefeated and will take on the newcomer after his first two scheduled opponents dropped out. Lima has the edge on the feet. Without a full fight camp to prepare, it will be tough for Raposo to utilize his grappling against the Brazilian.

Ailin Perez vs. Joselyne Edwards

This is a tale of strengths and weaknesses. Perez is a highly-skilled, dominant wrestler/grappler. Edwards is a great, rangy striker. The difference is that Edwards has shown she’s vulnerable to being taken down and is usually unable to do anything about it once she’s there. That should be all the opening Perez needs to seal this win for herself and come closer to being a bona fide contender at 135 pounds.

Bassil Hafez vs. Mickey Gall

People forget that Hafez is almost a year removed from his UFC debut, very nearly defeating Jack Della Maddalena in a razor thin split decision. Della Maddalena is now a top 5 welterweight. Hafez is a suffocating grappler. With a full fight camp, he should display some truly glittering skills in the octagon. Gall returns after a two-year hiatus. He is a very talented jiujitsu specialist and is quite adept at finding the rear naked choke (six of his seven pro wins). Hafez will have to watch out for the submissions, but should cruise to victory if he can protect his neck.

Picture Credit: Per Haljestam – USA Today