The UFC Saint Louis card features twelve bouts. This post will preview the six fights on the main card. You can view the previews for the prelim card HERE. The main event will feature UFC knockout king Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis (pictured left) against rising Brazilian contender Rodrigo Nascimento (pictured right). The co-main will see a welterweight showdown between welterweight contender Joaquin Buckley and Uzbek prospect Nursulton Ruziboev.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Saint Louis (Lewis vs. Nascimento) Main Card Previews – May 11, 2024

Robelis Despaigne vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

This will actually be a really decent test of how “for real” Despaigne truly is. Over five pro fights, the Cuban phenom has spent a total of five minutes and 31 seconds in the cage. All of his bouts have ended by first round KO, with him on the winning end. Cortes-Acosta is no slouch, though. He came into the UFC undefeated and has gone a respectable 4-1 since. Three of those four wins went by decision. That is the rub for this one. Cortes-Acosta has to avoid the raw power of Despaigne. If he can make Despaigne fight a full fight, something he’s never done in his career, we could see Despaigne gas out. However, if the fight turns into a slugfest, it’s a good bet Despaigne gets there first.

Sean Woodson vs. Alex Caceres

I don’t know why Caceres is not getting more respect here. He’s 7-2 in his last nine bouts with his two losses coming to ranked opponents Giga Chikadze and Sodiq Yussuf. Woodson is on quite a hot streak. However, his strength of schedule is nowhere near Caceres’. Caceres, who is a very exciting featherweight should bring the chaos to Woodson and put him in situations he’s not been in in his UFC career. Caceres is experienced and talented enough to make him pay when he inevitably makes a mistake.

Mateusz Rebecki vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

Here’s a bout between two men getting way more respect from the algorithm than any fans or oddsmakers out there. Ferreira because of his staying power and consistency and Rebecki because of his long run atop the FEN promotion in Poland. Both find themselves in the Cage Calculus lightweight rankings, but not the official UFC rankings. Rebecki is eight years younger with an opportunity to make a run at contention here soon. The algorithm may overrate both men, but casual MMA fans are most certainly underrating them. This has the makings of Rebecki by KO.

Carlos Ulberg vs. Alonzo Menifield

This is going to be a banger. Both men have an affinity for finishing fights in exciting fashion. Menifield will be the more powerful of the two, while Ulberg is the more skilled. Ulberg should be fine so long as he doesn’t get caught with a haymaker. That’s of course easier said than done, just ask Dustin Jacoby. Ulberg isn’t shy about getting a KO himself. If he can start catching Menifield on the end of his punches, he can knock him off enough to start chasing a KO without worrying about the power coming back. Menifield has an avenue, but it’s tough to reliably bet on a wild haymaker landing. Ulberg is the safer pick.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (Co-Main Event)

It remains to be seen whether Ruziboev will stay at welterweight after this one. Seven of his eight career losses have come at 170 pounds. At 6’5″, the cut was surely very difficult. Skill-wise, it’s hard to bet against him. He’s on a ten-fight first round finish streak. Of his 34 wins, 32 have come by finish (12 KOs, 20 submissions). Buckley is now in the UFC rankings after defeating Vicente Luque back in Atlantic City. He has stunning KO power and stopping a proficient grappler like Luque ought to bolster his standing in this division. However, Ruziboev is too talented to bet against. He has the tools to win this fight wherever. The weight cut may drain him, but on the feet, he’ll be able to keep the shorter(by seven inches) Buckley out of range. On the ground, Ruziboev is the more experience grappler and submission artist. Given that he’s already made the weight, he should be able to pull off this upset. But, as the algorithm suggests, this will be a great, close fight.

Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (Main Event)

If Lewis lands cleanly, he wins. It’s as simple as that. He is that powerful. Jailton Almeida showed that if you can get in and grapple, you can win. Nascimento has that grappling skill set (though, not as proficient as Almeida). He can hold Lewis down and mitigate the KO power. However, Nascimento has never fought a five round fight before. Add to that, he only has a takedown accuracy of 33 percent. More concerning, though, is the fact he absorbs 6.21 significant strikes per minute on average in his UFC bouts. That won’t fly against an all-time power puncher like Lewis. To beat Lewis, you need to beat him at his own game or neutralize him with an entirely different style. It’s not clear Nascimento has the ability to do either in this one.

Picture Credit: UFC