The UFC Saint Louis card features twelve bouts. This post will preview the six fights on the prelim card. The prelims will be headlined by a bout between lightweights Chase Hooper and Viacheslav Borschev. It will also feature ranked strawweight contender Tabatha Ricci (pictured above) face off against former top contender Tecia Pennington.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Saint Louis Prelims Previews – May 11, 2024

Veronica Hardy vs. JJ Aldrich

Someone’s about to lose their two-fight win streak. Both women are pretty well-rounded fighters. Ultimately, Aldrich’s experience and strength of schedule should give her the edge. Hardy won’t be able to bring anything she hasn’t seen before. This will be a close bout and will surely be Hardy’s toughest test since returning from a three-year layoff last year. However, Aldrich has been consistent and active, fighting and beating some tough opponents. Octagon experience against the likes of Erin Blanchfield won’t hurt either.

Jake Hadley vs. Charles Johnson

Johnson has a new lease on life after breaking his three-fight losing streak by upsetting undefeated Kazakh prospect Azat Maksum in February. Hadley, on the other hand, is coming off of an upset loss to Cody Durden, where he was a two-to-one favorite. Hadley will be the more aggressive fighter and often relies on a finish. Johnson has a better ground game and has shown an ability to tough out a decision if he has to. This is another one with upside for the underdog.

Trey Waters vs. Billy Goff

Is bigger better? We’ll find out in this one, as Waters is expected to come in with a seven-inch height advantage, towering at 6’5″, compared to Goff’s 5’10” frame. Both men are 1-0 in the UFC thus far and can make a statement. Waters will be the better striker and be able to keep the fight at distance. Goff needs a takedown, but Waters also boasts a surprisingly good takedown defense. It will also be hard for Goff to get in close, given the reach discrepancy. Most signs point to Waters having the edge. Goff’s wrestling is the x-factor, but with zero submissions, Goff probably won’t be able to finish on the ground, giving Waters the chance to stand back up and finish on the feet.

Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington

Ricci is coming off a heartbreaking split decision loss to Loopy Godinez at UFC 295. That broke her four-fight win streak where she displayed skills both on the feet and on the ground. Until the nailbiter with Godinez, Ricci had looked pretty well unstoppable since her debut loss to Manon Fiorot. Pennington (formerly Torres) is coming back after over two years after giving birth. Her last showing was also a split decision loss, coming against Mackenzie Dern. Given how good Ricci’s looked lately and Pennington’s ring rust, it should be a safe bet to go with the Brazilian to get back in the win column.

Esteban Ribovics vs. Terrance McKinney

Don’t expect this fight to go the distance. McKinney has never seen the scorecards in eight UFC appearances. Ribovics’ decision win last July against Kamuela Kirk is the only one of his twelve wins that went to the judges. McKinney will come out swinging for sure, as he tends to do. Loik Radzhabov provided the blueprint for beating Ribovics: heavy grappling. Despite McKinney’s caution-to-the-wind style, he has eight submissions to his name. He’s no slouch on the ground. Expect McKinney to go hard charging for a KO, but be able to fall back on his ground game to get the win.

Viacheslav Borschev vs. Chase Hooper (Featured Prelim)

Hooper relies heavily on his submission and ground game. All of his pro finishes are either a submission or by way of ground and pound. If Borschev is able to keep this on the feet, he will have the clear advantage. Borschev is coming off of a fight-of-the-year contender in his bout with Nazim Sadykhov back in November. Borschev showed he can strike with the best of them on the feet and withstand a top class grappler. This test should be relatively mild by comparison. This should get him back in the win column.

Picture Credit: FanSided