The UFC 301 card features fourteen bouts. This post will preview the four fights on the prelim card. You can see our previews for the early prelims HERE.

The prelims will be headlined by a bout between featherweight contenders Joanderson Brito and Jack Shore. It will also feature the return of rising Kyrgyz star, Myktybek Orolbai (pictured above), who makes his octagon debut at lightweight, after taking his UFC debut on short notice at welteweight. He will take on Elves Brenner.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 301 Prelims Previews – May 4, 2024

Jean Silva vs. William Gomis

As of the writing of this preview, this fight is still on. I won’t spend too much time here, as I’d be shocked if the fight goes on. I had thought Gomis would be a very live underdog in this one. However, he got on the scales three pounds underweight with clothes on looking immensely dehydrated. It’s difficult to imagine the commission allowing this fight to happen. In the event it does, Silva should have the cardio and stamina edge. Gomis would be very susceptible to getting KO’d.

Myktybek Orolbai vs. Elves Brener

Orolbai has proven himself to be a straight savage in the octagon. He ran through Uros Medic on short notice in his UFC debut. He mirrors a lot of features of his Central Asian compatriot Shavkat Rakhmonov in that he showcases the ability to finish fights by both KO and submission with the same ease. Brenner, though, is no stranger to being a heavy underdog, having prevailed in his first two UFC bouts, being a +470 underdog both times. Brenner will be game, but Orolbai is a different animal altogether. Until he proves otherwise, he’s the pick.

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Kowalkiewicz’s career resurgence has been one of the best stories in the UFC lately. It is nearly eight years after she challenged for the UFC strawweight belt back at UFC 205. Then, from 2018 to 2021, she lost five in a row and tearfully contemplated retirement. Now, she’s strung together four straight and finds herself in the UFC’s top 15. Lucindo has some real power for this division and will come in a full 16 years younger. I think the odds should be a bit closer given Kowalkiewicz’s experience. However, the strength of schedule during her four-fight win streak leaves a bit to be desired. This will be her first real test in some time. I was tempted, but still think Lucindo has the skills to get this done.

Joanderson Brito vs. Jack Shore

This is a great bout between a fighter who has thunderous KO power for a featerweight (Brito) and an exhausting grappler/wrestler (Shore). Both men only have one loss in their respective UFC runs. Shore fell to Ricky Simon by submission and Brito to Bill Algeo in his UFC debut. Shore is durable on the feet and only looks weak when he’s outmatched at his own game. Brito will not have the advantage in the ground game. Brito has to hope for a KO (which he certainly has the power to do). However, look for Shore to weather the storm early and eventually get the fight to the ground and just wear down the Brazilian en route to a decision win.

Picture Credit: UFC