The UFC 301 card features thirteen bouts. This post will preview the five fights on the PPV main card. You can see our previews for the early prelims HERE and the prelim card HERE.

The main card will be headlined by a bout for the men’s flyweight championship. Champion Alexandre Pantoja (pictured middle left) will face tenth ranked contender Steve Erceg (pictured middle right). In the co-main event, longtime men’s featherweight champion Jose Aldo (pictured far right) returns from retirement to face bantamweight contender Jonathan Martinez (pictured far left).

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 301 (Pantoja vs. Erceg) Main Card Previews – May 4, 2024

Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig

Some fighters just have a nuclear option in their back pocket to use in case they get in trouble. For most, it’s one-punch KO power. For Paul Craig, it’s his submission game. Craig holds finishes over Jamahal Hill, Magomed Ankalaev, and Nikita Krylov, all three ranked in the top five of Cage Calculus’ light heavyweight rankings. Craig could be losing badly, but if he gets a hold of your arm, rest assured he’s going home with it unless you tap out. However, people are finally starting to get wise and making Craig pay for his deficit on the feet. Borralho is a very well-rounded fighter and has been making some high level grapplers look lost in his five-fight UFC tenure, winning all of them. Craig has that nuclear option, but barring that, Borralho should dominate this fight wherever he wants it to take place. With his grappling, he should be able to stuff any takedown attempts and keep this standing, where he is levels above the Scotsman.

Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria

Pereira is one of the UFC’s most electric fighters, which is good, as this fight does not promise to be the most exciting on paper. Pereira is on a seven-fight win streak. That has included some bad luck with opponents pulling out and trouble on the scale. He’s since made middleweight his home (up from welterweight) and has looked just as sharp. Potieria only has two advantages. He’s bigger, as he’s coming down from his normal light heavyweight for this one. Pereira also tends to gas himself out by the third round. So, if Potieria can hang on, he should find some openings in round three. However, Potieria is taking this fight on short notice after Makhmud Muradov pulled out with an infection. So, the cardio advantage should be mitigated by lack of prep time. It just seems too tall a task for a fighter who is lacking in raw skills already.

Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith

When Anthony Smith submitted Ryan Spann in the first round back in September of 2021 (the very first event Cage Calculus every previewed by the way), he seemed destined to re-insert himself into the light heavyweight title picture. He then went on a rough four-fight stretch, losing three times (twice by finish) and his only win a split decision against the aforementioned Spann (though, viewers saw it differently). Petrino is on the opposite trajectory. He is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC, with two finishes already. This bout will be his toughest yet against a very experienced opponent who’s been at the top levels of this division for years. However, it might seem that Anthony Smith is reaching the end of his storied career. This is typically a trap matchup for an up-and-comer like Petrino, but Smith has been getting caught by men with lesser striking skills than Petrino.

Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo (Co-Main Event)

Why? This fight makes very little sense for Aldo. After giving Merab Dvalishvili his toughest test in a while at UFC 278, Aldo stepped away from the sport and called an end to his hall of fame career. This return fight makes little sense. Stepping in to face a guy outside the top 10 who is not the biggest name out there. Just from a promotional standpoint, it’s odd (unless the UFC just wanted Aldo on the card to boost PPV numbers). Aldo has been able to outpoint some wins, but against a faster striker like Martinez, it’ll be hard for the King of Rio to put together a winning performance in his return. Martinez should be able to stay at range, use leg kicks, and call it a day. It may be a short-lived career resurgence for Aldo.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg (Title Fight Main Event)

Speaking of fights that don’t make sense, we come to our main event. The UFC went all the way down to their tenth ranked flyweight (he is #12 in the CC rankings) to get this title shot. He is the lowest-ranked UFC fighter to get a title shot since Dan Henderson challenged Michael Bisping as the #13 middleweight in October 2016. Erceg is a solid fighter and may have entered the title picture after a little while. He has a 67% finishing rate and is coming off a brutal one-punch KO of Matt Schnell. He’s been impressive in his three UFC bouts. But, to be clear, this is only his fourth UFC fight. Pantoja, on the other hand, has been around a while. He’s 11-3 in his UFC career, with two of those losses having come to former champion Deiveson Figueiredo and then-top contender Askar Askarov. He dominated Brandon Royval in his first title defense last year. Pantoja puts on an exhausting pace that should mitigate Erceg’s one advantage – range. Pantoja ought to have the advantage in the grappling exchanges and has done it at the top level for too long to believe Erceg can hang if it gets to the ground. This has Pantoja by submission written all over it.

Picture Credit: UFC