The UFC 301 card features fourteen bouts. This post will preview the first five fights on the “early prelim” card. In just these first five fights, we will see three fighters making their UFC debuts. The early prelims will be capped by a bout between lightweights Joaquim Silva and Drakkar Klose (pictured above).

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 301 Early Prelims Previews – May 4, 2024

Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas

Costa is one of a select few flyweights who has enough power in his hands to end a fight instantly. People like to point to his 1-2 record in the UFC as proof that he’s not polished enough. However, his two losses have come to this card’s title challenger Steve Erceg and top-3 contender Amir Albazi. Costa might not be a ranked flyweight yet, but he is a powerful striker who has the added bonus of being a jiu-jitsu black belt. Borjas has a cardio advantage and is a little lengthier, but that’s about it. Trust the algorithm and the oddsmakers.

Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel

This one might be tough to watch. Bonfim announced his presence by starching Terrance McKinney in his UFC debut with a stunning flying knee. He then got thrown into the fire against Benoit Saint-Denis (and actually entered as a -320 favorite). Saint-Denis started his own hype train by submitting Bonfim. However, Vinc Pichel is not Benoit Saint-Denis. Pichel is 41 and will be making his 11th walk to the octagon in this one. This will be too tall a task for the veteran. He may well be on the receiving end of another highlight reel KO.

Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kareckaite

Both flyweights make their UFC debut in this one. It is a fascinating matchup of styles. The Brazilian Barbosa is a top tier grappler with half of her pro wins coming by way of submission. The Lithuanian Kareckaite is an extremely long, accomplished kickboxer. This fight ought to be closer than the oddsmakers are giving it credit for. We already saw Manon Fiorot show what a bigger striker can do against an accomplished grappler in this division. However, there are levels and Kareckaite has not finished anyone in five years. Barbosa only needs one takedown per round to dominate the fight and chase a submission. Unless Kareckaite can find a finishing shot, I don’t think she has the experience in MMA to hold off Barbosa for a full fight.

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Ruffy is coming into his UFC debut as a hot prospect. All nine of his wins have come by knockout. He’s fighting on home soil and is a rare 2-to-1 favorite in his first UFC fight. However, Mullarkey comes in with a wealth of experience. This will be his 11th UFC bout in the last five years. He’s faced some seriously tough competition along the way. He works well in the clinch, which could mitigate some of the striking at range of Ruffy. Also, there is always a tendency to overestimate people making their debut, especially against a formidable opponent. There are levels in this game and things that work at lower levels just don’t cut it in the UFC. That’s why the CC algorithm values experience. I’m inclined to agree this time. Ride the underdog.

Drakkar Klose vs. Joaquim Silva

This could be a fight of the night contender. Both men have a tendency to swing for the fences. Four of the six losses between them have come by KO (one for Klose, three for Silva). This can benefit Klose for a number of reasons. He’s more apt to win by decision if he has to. He can afford to wait for Silva to get sloppy. When he does, he can deliver a winning combo or pick the Brazilian apart from the outside and let Silva gas out or outpoint his way to a decision. There are too many routes for Klose to take this to feel comfortable going against him in this one.

Picture Credit: Yardbarker