The UFC Vegas 91 card features thirteen bouts. This post will preview the six fights on the main card. You can see our previews for the prelims HERE. The main card will be headlined by a bout between flyweight contenders Matheus Nicolau (pictured left) and Alex Perez (pictured right).

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Vegas 91 (Nicolau vs. Perez) Main Card Previews – April 27, 2024

Uros Medic vs. Tim Means

One of the things to know about the Cage Calculus algorithm is that it is heavily biased towards experience. Hence, the large discrepancy between the odds and the CC win probability in this bout. Means was able to finish Andre Fialho his last time out, showing he still has some left in the tank, even at 40. However, the rest of Fialho’s UFC career shows he was not too high on protecting his chin. Medic will have no such issues in the octagon and should be able to use his speed to his advantage en route to a decisive win in this one.

Jonathan Pearce vs. David Onama

Onama came into the UFC an undefeated prospect at 8-0. He took his UFC debut on very short notice, ultimately losing a decision to Mason Jones. His only other loss came by majority decision to Nate Landwehr, who is himself knocking on the door of the featherweight top 15. Pearce was similarly hot before losing to Joanderson Brito his last time out, his first loss in four years. People are sleeping on Onama in this one. He carries a perfect 100% finish rate and has some of the best KO power in the division. Pearce is typically more measured, but has finishing ability of his own. If Onama draws Pearce into a firefight, the Ugandan should have the edge. The only wild card now at play is how Onama missing weight by 2.5 pounds will impact the bout. Did Onama have a hard cut or did he give up, possibly leaving himself a bit fresher? I’m sticking with Onama nonetheless.

Jhonata Diniz vs. Austen Lane

We don’t know much about this one. Austen Lane, former Jacksonville Jaguars player, has spent a few minutes in the octagon over two fights. The first ended after almost gouging Justin Tafa’s eye out. The second ended in him getting flatlined by Tafa in the rematch. Diniz had only five pro fights in Brazil before a first round KO win on Dana White’s Contender Series. Given the limited data we have on both men, we can say the undefeated Diniz likely has the edge in both speed and power (all of his pro wins are by KO). That’s plenty enough to give him the nod for this one.

Karine Silva vs. Ariane Lipski

This fight has the potential to be the most compelling on the card. Karine Silva is 3-0 with three straight first round finishes in her UFC career. Yet, she opened as the betting underdog in this one. Those odds decidedly shifted since the fight was announced. It’s easy to see why. In 17 pro wins, Silva still boasts a perfect 100 percent finish rate, with 8 KOs and 9 submissions (unheard of for most fighters, let alone in the women’s flyweight division). She’ll face her toughest test yet in the “Queen of Violence” Lipski. Lipski has showed some rather intense finishing ability in her UFC career. However, she does have a tendency to get caught chasing those finishes. She’s been finished by TKO three times in her last seven bouts. That is not sustainable against a fighter like Silva.

Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov (Co-Main Event)

Spann appeared heading back for the light heavyweight title contention conversation after submitting Ion Cutelaba and then flatlining former title contender Dominick Reyes. However, he was then submitted by Nikita Krylov and then suffered a controversial split decision loss to Anthony Smith in their rematch. Spann still has powerful hands and carries 12 submissions to his name as well. Guskov, for his part, wants to make his presence known. He debuted against the tough Volkan Oezdemir. He lost via submission and this is the chance for him to prove he wasn’t overhyped coming in against such a high rated opponent. Guskov has one-punch KO power and a 100 percent finish rate. He just needs one and Spann has show he’s susceptible to giving it. Picking the upset here seems wise.

Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez (Main Event)

Alex Perez went from a fighter who’d won six of seven en route to a title shot to a fighter who’s lost three in a row and had a whopping ten bouts cancelled or rescheduled in between. It’s hard not to start feeling like he’s had a snake-bitten career. It won’t get easier after he abandoned his scheduled fight in June against Tagir Ulanbekov to take this one on short notice. Nicolau had his own run towards the title stopped short when he fell to Brandon Royval, who would end up getting a shot at the champion afterwards. Nicolau is very versatile and quick. With more time to prepare, six years of youth, and the skill advantage on his side, it’s hard to see Perez turning his fates around for this fight.

Picture Credit: UFC