The UFC Vegas 91 card features thirteen bouts. This post will preview the seven fights on the prelim card. The prelims will be headlined by a bout between lightweight prospect Victor Henry (pictured) and UFC veteran Rani Yahya.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC Vegas 91 Prelims Previews – April 27, 2024

Hayisaer Maheshate vs. Gabriel Benitez

This is a matchup of two distance strikers trying to claw their way out of the bottom of the lightweight standings. The two are, however, at very different points in their career. Benitez is pushing 37 years old, trying to get another couple of wins before calling it quits. However, he’s 2-5 in his last seven bouts. Maheshate is only 24, having had a tough 1-2 start to his UFC career. Though, he has plenty of time to turn it around. Both men have a propensity to end fights within the distance. However, with a 12 year age gap, Maheshate can weaponize his cardio to outpoint Benitez en route to a decision win.

Ivana Petrovic vs. Liang Na

Here we have two women looking for their first UFC win. Petrovic lost a decision to Luana Carolina in her UFC debut, but does boast an 83.3% finishing rate over her pro career. Na is 0-3 in the UFC having been finished by KO in each bout. Na is the second-lowest rated female in the UFC, behind only Istela Nunes. Petrovic will have both a height and reach advantage in this one and will also likely be the bigger fighter, as Na is typically a strawweight. Not much to overthink here. The Croatian should get the job done for her first UFC win, putting Na on the cutting block for the UFC roster.

James Llontop vs. Chris Padilla

Anything can happen when two men make their UFC debuts against one another. There are a lot of variables at play in this one, but the most significant might be prep time. Padilla takes this bout on short notice after Gabe Green dropped out. While Padilla is the more versatile fighter, Llontop is a very long, talented striker who should be able to neutralize Padilla’s skill set. Maybe with a bit more time to prepare, Padilla could draw back even. But, not on short notice.

Ketlen Souza vs. Marnic Mann

This should be a fun bout between fighters who are not big on defense. Souza is a very skilled jiu-jitsu practitioner. Mann is more versatile with good striking and wrestling. Souza should be the stronger of the two. Souza should be able to hold up well on the ground if Mann wrestles offensively and take advantage of any holes if Mann gets too content on the feet to shoot a takedown.

Caio Machado vs. Don’Tale Mayes

The story of this fight will be which Caio Machado shows up. Machado has a decided grappling advantage over the striking heavy Mayes. Mayes is a better wrestler, but if Machado gets him on his back, it’s game over. If the fight stays on the feet, Mayes will have the upper hand in skill and power. That’s the theory of the case here. Mayes knows what he needs to do and should be well-prepared to execute this simple (in theory) game plan.

Michal Figlak vs. Austin Hubbard

Both men need a statement win. Hubbard is getting a second chance after coming as runner-up on The Ultimate Fighter. Figlak has been out a while with injury. Figlak is more aggressive, while Hubbard has more experience and durability. I’m guessing the long layoff will temper some of Figlak’s tendencies that make him susceptible to getting caught. He’ll fight a more well-rounded fight, with the ever-present possibility of using his power to get a win.

Victor Henry vs. Rani Yahya (Featured Prelim)

Henry, despite having only four UFC fights, is a ripe 36 years old. Yahya will be making his 21st walk to the octagon at age 39. Both men are experienced grapplers. Yahya shoots a lot of takedowns, but Henry, for his part, has never been submitted and has a jiu-jitsu black belt of his own. On the feet, the advantage is squarely with Henry. This is a stylistic nightmare for Yahya. Henry can mitigate the wrestling and grappling and dictate the fight on the feet. Yahya will really need to be creative to get an advantageous position. I don’t see it happening.

Picture Credit: ClutchPoints