The UFC 300 card features thirteen bouts. For the greatest combat sports card ever assembled, we will be bringing back commentary in addition to our normal previews. This post will preview the four fights on the prelim card. You can see our previews for the early prelims HERE.

The prelims will be headlined by a bout between former light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka (pictured right) and rising Serbian contender Aleksandar Rakic (pictured left). It will also see the long-awaited UFC debut of Kayla Harrison, the PFL’s former women’s lightweight champion, facing off against former UFC women’s bantamweight champion, Holly Holm.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 300 Prelims Previews – April 13, 2024

Diego Lopes vs. Sodiq Yussuf

Despite being one of the lower profile fights on the card, this ought to be a good one. Expect the fight to remain standing, as both fighters average fewer than one takedown attempt per round over their UFC careers. However, Lopes has that option in his back pocket, with 12 submissions over his career and having proven he can hang on the ground with one of the division’s best in Movsar Evloev. However, Lopes will be the taller fighter by three inches and have a one-inch reach advantage. He ought to be comfortable on the feet as well. As talented as Tussuf is, it is hard to identify one specific area where he can best the also-talented Lopes. It is also hard to shake the memory of Yussuf getting beaten by the 38-year-old Edson Barboza his last time out. Lopes is also a dangerous striker and will have the added benefit of youth. It just doesn’t look good if you’re a Yussuf fan in this one.

Kayla Harrison vs. Holly Holm

I’m sure you already see the green-highlighted rectangle above. Am I crazy? Maybe. However, you can’t tell me Holly Holm doesn’t know how to beat an Olympic judoka in the octagon. She does. Holm is still very good at clinch work and displayed as much against Ketlen Vieira, despite losing that fight due to inexplicable split decision. The gameplan is there and Holm executed it. Pound-for-pound, Harrison is probably the more talented of the two. However, there will be a couple of factors working against her. First, Harrison fought in the PFL at 155 pounds. She will be cutting an extra 20 pounds for this one. The level of competition in the PFL is also not close to what she’ll be facing in Holly Holm, even a 42-year-old Holm. She’s going to feel resistance and fatigue like she never has. The theory of the case here is that Harrison loses a round feeling things out and then does not have the stamina due to the crushing weight cut to do what she needs to do to get the victory in rounds two and three. I’m being bold and going with the underdog.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Calvin Kattar

This is a true matchup of styles for former bantamweight champ Aljamain Sterling’s debut at featherweight. Sterling is a wrestler/grappler through and through, who self-styles as the “human backpack.” Kattar is a boxer who spends roughly 95 percent of his fight time at distance striking. Sterling will look to replicate his winning strategy in his second bout with Petr Yan, chasing takedowns and controlling the fight on the ground. The x-factor here will be Kattar’s takedown defense. Kattar will have the striking advantage. If he stays upright for 15 minutes he should win the fight. Over his UFC career, Kattar has a 91 percent takedown defense. Add to that the fact that he should be the bigger man, as Sterling is coming up a weight class for this fight, things are looking more optimistic for Kattar. If that formula holds, that’s a win.

Aleksandar Rakic vs. Jiri Prochazka

I’m quite unsure what to make of this fight. Prochazka has looked surprisingly beatable his last two times out (the early Marc Goddard stoppage notwithstanding). That being said, he is still one of the most talented, unorthodox strikers out there. Rakic, on the other hand, seemed destined to fight for the title until a leg injury unceremoniously ended his 2022 bout against Jan Blachowicz. He has not fought since. This fight is likely to be a slugfest, with one shot taking the day. Rakic does have slightly better grappling numbers, but a paltry takedown accuracy should keep this on the feet. Prochazka does have a propensity to leave his chin open, which should give Rakic the advantage in a KO race. However, given the ring rust Rakic is sure to be experiencing and the talent and style of Prochazka, this should be too tall a task for the Serb coming off a serious injury. Give the edge to the former champ.

Picture Credit: Ringside24