The UFC 300 card features thirteen bouts. For the greatest combat sports card ever assembled, we will be bringing back commentary in addition to our normal previews. This post will preview the five fights on the PPV main card. You can see our previews for the early prelims HERE and the prelim card HERE.

The main card will be headlined by three title fights. Light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira faces off against former champ Jamahal Hill. Zhang Weili will defend her strawweight title against fellow Chinese fighter, Yan Xiaonan. And, Justin Gaethje will defend his “BMF” belt against former featherweight champion Max Holloway, who comes up to lightweight for this bout.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 300 (Pereira vs. Hill) Main Card Previews – April 13, 2024

Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage

Dana White is going to break the Cage Calculus algorithm with matchmaking like this. All the code knows is that Bo Nickal has very little pro experience and he has only fought low-level competition (Brundage, with a -0.561 CCz Score, will be the toughest opponent he’s faced to date). Yet, he stands as a whopping 21-to-1 favorite. If he lost, he’d be the biggest favorite to lose ever in UFC history… by far. There’s just no area (other than experience and strength of schedule) where Brundage is statistically better. If the UFC is going to fast-track Bo Nickal, it’s time they give him someone worthy of the hype they’re showering on him. Don’t expect anything crazy Saturday night.

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Charles Oliveira

This could be the most intriguing fight on an absolutely stacked card. People are trying to write off Oliveira now that his title reign is over and he approaches 35 years of age. However, he’s still proving people wrong. Oliveira is the most accomplished finisher in UFC history. Both men are coming off KO wins over Beneil Dariush, a big name contender in his own right. Both have displayed prolific ground games. I think the game changer is Tsarukyan’s power. Both men can put you out, but Tsarukyan definitely has more force in his hands. Oliveira has been spared some finishes because opponents are hesitant to try ground and pound, just because of how dangerous Oliveira is off his back. Tsarukyan should have no such problem going to the ground to get a finish if necessary. That should be why this fight should go his way. Tsarukyan is built to effectively neutralize the things that make Oliveira most dangerous.

Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway (BMF Title Fight)

This is the early frontrunner for Fight of the Night, I’m sure. Don’t expect any grappling to happen. Gaethje could try to take the fight to the ground with his wrestling background, where he’d have the advantage over Holloway, but both men subscribe to the “swang ‘n’ bang” school of fight philosophy. Holloway holds the UFC record for most significant strikes landed in a UFC career. However, he also holds the record for most strikes absorbed. That does not bode well against a guy like Gaethje, who swings to kill. Holloway has never been KO’d, but if he decides to eat some right hooks with his chin against Justin Gaethje, that all may change. Holloway’s cardio may also be worn down by Gaethje’s pace, his leg kicks, and his power. This is going to be a fun one, but expect Holloway to take some punishment like we haven’t seen.

Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan (Title Fight Co-Main Event)

This one feels straightforward because it is. It is a bit of a travesty that Zhang Weili is not recognized by the UFC as the women’s pound-for-pound number one. She does sit atop Cage Calculus’s P4P rankings by a pretty wide margin. She is one of the most dominant strawweights ever. With her nemesis, Rose Namajunas, now out of the division, the road looks wide open for her to reign for a long time. Yan impressed recently with wins over Mackenzie Dern and a shocking first round KO of Jessica Andrade. However, we forget she lost a split decision to Marina Rodriguez before that and then got absolutely handled by Carla Esparza. Contrast that with the way Zhang came in and dominated Esparza during their title clash, and you should get some sense for how this fight will play out.

Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill (Title Fight Main Event)

I’ll come right out and say there might be some prejudice behind this pick. I think Alex Pereira is a mythical fighter. Pereira came into the UFC, knocking out the pedestrian Andreas Michailidis (who has since been cut from the UFC). Then he fought out a very close decision win over Bruno Silva. To his credit, he then scored a decent KO win over Sean Strickland. However, his title win over Israel Adesanya came in the fifth round of a fight where he was getting dominated and the stoppage from Marc Goddard came while Adesanya was still on his feet and present. It was questionable at best. No matter, five months later, Pereira got slept in the second round by Adesanya and lost that title. Pereira moves up to light heavyweight and wins a razor thin split decision against Jan Blachowicz where he was pretty well controlled on the ground. Then, another questionable Marc Goddard stoppage delivered him the light heavyweight title over Jiri Prochazka. It seems between judging, scheduling, and referee stoppages, Pereira has gotten about every break possible during his UFC career. That’s no fault of his own. However, Herb Dean, notorious for letting fights go past the point you could stop them, will be officiating this one. Also, we haven’t even discussed Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill. Hill is not named this for his soft hands. Pereira absorbs 4.82 strikes per minute in his UFC bouts. Compare that to 3.51 for Hill. Hill has a distance striking differential three times better than Pereira. Both men are going to account for a KO on the feet. I am firmly convicted that this benefits the former champ, Hill, who is the most powerful opponent Pereira has faced to date.

Picture Credit: UFC