The UFC 300 card features thirteen bouts. For the greatest combat sports card ever assembled, we will be bringing back commentary in addition to our normal previews. This post will preview the first four fights on the “early prelim” card. In just these first four fights, we will see three former champions battle it out, including former two-time flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo (pictured right) facing off against former bantamweight champion Cody “No Love” Garbrandt (pictured left). We’ll also see Jim Miller, the UFC’s all time leader in wins face off against fellow veteran, Bobby Green.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Also featured below their record and rating is their divisional rankings in the CC Rankings and the official UFC Rankings. Any fighter falling outside of the top 15 of their respective division is classified as NR (not ranked).

Also displayed to the right of their rankings is a fighter’s CCz Score. A positive CCz Score indicates a fighter is above average for their weight class. A negative one indicates they are below average. The higher the number is, the farther away from average a fighter is (in either direction). CCz Scores typically range from as high as positive 4, to as low as negative 2.5.

Without further ado, here is the Cage Calculus tale of the tape for this week’s fights!

UFC 300 Early Prelims Previews – April 13, 2024

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt

This is going to be a sneaky good fight. Garbrandt is not getting a lot of love (as his nickname might suggest) to win this one, even from our algorithm. He is on a two-fight win streak after a tough stretch where he lost five out of six, as well as his bantamweight crown. However, despite 14 UFC fights under his belt, he’s only 32 years old. He’s still got some juice left in the tank and his speed and power are not to be underestimated. While the odds should be closer than they are, I’d still give Figueiredo the edge. Despite being the shorter man, he has a three-inch reach advantage. Figueiredo will also be the more experienced man on the ground. He should be especially emboldened, as Garbrandt is not a submission threat at all. Figueiredo’s versatility will keep Garbrandt guessing and the threat of a takedown might open up the winning shot to KO Garbrandt, who is susceptible to being knocked out, with four of his five pro losses coming by way of KO.

Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller

Here’s one for the old-school fans. Both men have been around the UFC a long time. Green is likely getting the edge in betting markets because he is the younger fighter by three years (37 to Miller’s 40). Both men have the same reach, but Green is the much more accomplished striker at distance. Miller will have to close the distance and try to make the fight dirty or get it to the ground. However, in his new career resurgence, I’m confident Miller will be able to do that. That is, if he doesn’t get caught on the outside like Grant Dawson. Miller is more active in the offensive wrestling and Green’s last submission before submitting Tony Ferguson at UFC 291 was way back in 2013. Jim Miller is solid enough on his feet with roughly the same KO percentage as Green (25 for Green, 23 for Miller), but manages to avoid getting KO’d, with only 12 percent of his losses coming by KO (compared to 40 percent for Green). I just see too many avenues for Miller to get this done to pick against him.

Jessica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez

I will admit I agonized over this pick for a good bit. Marina Rodriguez went on a solid four-fight win streak in 2021 into the early part of 2022, KO’ing Amanda Ribas and then rolling to decision wins over Michelle Waterson, Mackenzie Dern, and Yan Xiaonan. That stretch should have netted her a title shot (and Cage Calculus called for it back in March 2022). However, it didn’t and she lost each of her next two bouts, falling out of the title picture. I happen to think Rodriguez is one of the most underrated strawweights out there right now. However, Jessica Andrade is a different animal. After seeing Rodriguez get handled pretty well by Virna Jandiroba for three rounds at UFC 288, it’s hard not to think Andrade can’t do the same. Andrade is known for her aggressive style. While Rodriguez is one of the more talented strikers, I don’t think she quite has the ability to keep Andrade at bay for as long as it will take to avoid getting caught or controlled. Andrade will close the gap with her aggression and power, making it a long night for Rodriguez.

Jalin Turner vs. Renato Moicano

This ought to be the easiest fight to pick on this early prelim card. Turner has a perfect 100 percent finish rate in his career with 8 KOs and 6 submissions over 14 fights. He’ll be the younger fighter by six years and boasts a five-inch reach advantage. Moicano is the more experienced grappler, but Turner’s reach will likely keep him at bay or force him to come into range enough that he’s liable to get caught by a knockout blow. Moicano is not exactly known for mitigating this risk, with three of his five pro losses coming by way of knockout. Turner should be able to pick Moicano apart from distance and deliver the finishing blow if the Brazilian tries to force something.

Picture Credit: Athlon Sports