The UFC 290 card features thirteen bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. It sees two title fights capping a stacked main card. The first is for the men’s flyweight title between champion Brandon Moreno and Brazilian challenger Alexandre Pantoja. The main event is for the unification of the men’s featherweight title between champion Alexander Volkanovski and interim champion Yair Rodriguez.

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Any number in brackets to the left of a fighter’s name indicates their ranking in the CC Rankings, not the official UFC Rankings.

UFC 290 – July 8, 2023

Kirk is coming up from featherweight for this fight. This’ll be a tough matchup, as Ribovics is able to control larger fighters well and mitigate good wrestling. Kirk’s known for his wrestling, but has shown little of that if at all at the UFC level.

Aguilar has skill and aggression. Ross has height and length advantages. Given Ross’ propensity to get finished, Aguilar could chase the KO and get it. It’ll be risky fighting a longer fighter, but Aguilar’s skill advantage will let him get inside to chase finishes (he also has a good submission game).

Mitchell will take this fight on short notice against an undefeated Saaiman. Mitchell is coming from Alaska FC, not known for top tier competition. Saaiman does have to work on avoiding fouls in the octagon, but there is no doubt who will be more skilled and well-prepared in there at UFC 290.

Prachnio started his UFC career by getting KO’d in the first round in three straight. He’s recovered by winning three of his last four. However, Petrino is young, has immense power, and a four-inch reach advantage. Petrino is the type of fighter made to KO fighters like Prachnio. Prachnio’s leg kicks won’t save him.

The last time out, these men ended in a draw. Two judges scored for Menifield and the other for Crute. However, a Menifield point deduction for a fence grab ultimately led to the draw. Crute has been fighting the best of the best and now knows his weaknesses against a fighter like Menifield. Expect him to come out smarter and outpoint Menifield to a decision win.

Jauregui is among the most talented prospects in the strawweight division. She has a 70 percent finish rate, all by knockout. Gomes is also a young, up-and-coming talent, but flatly has not shown the kind of skill and performance to be able to hang with someone like Jauregui yet.

This is merely a case of Taira being one of the most talented flyweight prospects the UFC has and, with a number of opponents having fallen through, they toss Chairez out there just to get Taira a fight. It should be over inside of a round.

This will be a nice send-off for the former welterweight champion, Lawler. However, Price will come in with speed and ability to work on his back that will keep the veteran guessing. This will no doubt be an exciting bout, but Lawler will likely exit the UFC with one more loss after a brilliant career.

Woodburn comes into save this fight on super short notice. Dana White is intent on making Nickal a star. He won’t get a fight to challenge him seriously for a bit. He should wrestle his way to a first round submission in this one and onto the next.

People must have forgotten about Dan Hooker. He had a rough go of it taking fights on short notice during COVID, but he’s the guy who nearly KO’d Dustin Poirier on a number of occasions during their early 2020 bout. Hooker is still dangerous and hungry. Combine that with a botched weight cut by Turner, it is altogether possible that that closes the gap between the two and we see vintage Dan “The Hangman” Hooker at UFC 290.

Were it not for Israel Adesanya, Whittaker would be one of the most dominant middleweights of all-time. He has very technical, precise striking and is growing a ground game as of late. Du Plessis has power, but has suffered far too many close calls against fighters well below Whittaker’s caliber. Expect “The Reaper” to play spoiler for another rising contender in the middleweight division while trying to get a trilogy with the champ.

These two have fought twice already. Once came on The Ultimate Fighter and the other came inside the UFC octagon officially. Pantoja took both, the first by submission and the second by decision. Moreno has gotten better, but Pantoja’s aggressive style and superior submission game has proven hard to defend. If anyone is going to give the champion trouble in his first title defense against someone not named Deiveson Figueiredo, it should be Pantoja.

Volkanovski looks unstoppable at featherweight. People are saying Rodriguez’s speed will present a challenge. However, Rodriguez was outstruck by Max Holloway in a rangy standup fight. Last time out, Volkanovski outclassed Holloway, proving he was too fast for even the former champ. Until Volkanovski shows signs of slowing down, it would be irresponsible to pick against him facing anyone not named Islam Makhachev.

Picture Credit: UFC