The UFC Vegas 76 card features twelve bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. It sees a co-main event between rising lightweights, Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson. It is headlined by a men’s middleweight bout between top tier contender Sean Strickland (pictured left) and star prospect Abusupiyan Magomedov (pictured right).

All win probabilities are based off of a fighter’s Cage Calculus (CC) Rating and their place in the CC Rankings. The fighter’s name highlighted in green at the bottom of the panel indicates the editor’s pick to win. Any number in brackets to the left of a fighter’s name indicates their ranking in the CC Rankings, not the official UFC Rankings.

UFC Fight Night (Strickland vs. Magomedov) – July 1, 2023

Both fighters’ entire UFC careers have consisted of close split decisions. However, the Georgian, Kutateladze, has fought much stiffer competition. No reason to think the oddsmakers are off base on this one, despite what the forecast says. Kutateladze is underrated because he got thrown into the fire quickly. The flames are much cooler in this one. Don’t overthink it.

Both heavyweight contenders have been struggling recently. But, if you look at both of their recent losses against Marcin Tybura, Romanov acquitted himself much better. Ivanov has never scored a finish in the UFC. Romanov’s younger and faster and should get the job done.

Credit to Wilson for taking this one on super short notice. However, Brito’s got two straight first round finishes against opponents who were prepared for him. The forecast and the oddsmakers aren’t both wrong on this one.

Petrovic is an exciting prospect with skills in grappling and striking, albeit with some room to grow. This is a very winnable debut against an opponent who has struggled mightily of late. The Croatian newcomer will have the size and skill advantage. Bet the newbie.

This is Rosa’s second straight at featherweight, up from her normal fight weight of 135 pounds, as she’s taking this on short notice after Macy Chiasson dropped out. On a normal night, Rosa would have the skill advantage here. However, given it’s really short notice and how Rosa struggled against the bigger Norma Dumont her last time out, it might be wise to pick the underdog Santos, who’s better prepared and will have a height and reach advantage.

Former interim title contender Lee is back in the UFC after a short stint in Khabib Nurmagomedov’s Eagle FC. He had a tough run after his title fight loss to Tony Ferguson, but at just age 30, is far from over the hill. His UFC legacy causes the forecast to look highly on his chances statistically. That said, Fakhretdinov has run through everyone, not having lost a pro fight since 2014, and has dangerous power and grappling. This will be a rough return for Lee.

Ferreira is coming off a huge upset his last time out against Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues. He’s undefeated with a perfect finish rate. However, he faces Uzbek newcomer Ruziboev, who has 44 pro fights at just age 29. He’s used to fighting on short notice (as this one will be) and has notched titles in multiple promotions. With 20 submission wins, he should be able to get the fight to the ground and win there. Ruziboev is a live underdog and there’s a reason the forecast has him slightly ahead.

Bonfim’s finish of Terrance McKinney last time out was impressive, as is his resume. However, I can’t understand for the life of me why the odds are this wide, especially considering that Bonfim took this fight after Saint-Denis’s original opponent (Vinc Pichel) dropped out in late May. Saint-Denis displayed otherworldly toughness in his short-notice debut against Elizeu Zaleski (a ranked welterweight). He followed by stringing together two finishes, to maintain his perfect pro finishing rate. Going with the underdog here again!

Gatto is a rangy fighter who’s had experience against high level competition. Lipski has had some spectacular wins, but has struggled to get any consistency going in the win column. It’ll be important not to hold Gatto’s first career loss her last time out against a dangerous Tracy Cortez against her. She should get back to her winning ways in this matchup.

This will be the first big test for the undefeated 24 year-old Venezuelan sensation, Morales. He’s come in and KO’d his first two UFC opponents. Now, he’ll face the veteran Griffin, who’s been facing top tier competition for some time now. However, not only is Morales the more skilled fighter, but in bouts with a more than ten-year age gap (Griffin is 37), the younger fighter wins a disproportionate amount. Trust the forecast. Trust the oddsmakers. Trust me.

The 32 year-old Kazakh’s retirement was short-lived. Ismagulov wants back in. He started his UFC career 5-0 before losing to the rising star, Arman Tsarukyan, a loss that’s looking more reasonable each day. However, Dawson is 7-0-1 in the UFC and rapidly approaching contender status in a stacked division. This fight is razor thin. Tie break goes to Ismagulov because of the fact that Dawson has preyed a bit on veterans lately. Ismagulov will be faster and will also boast a reach advantage.

Strickland was one fight away from a title shot, but got stopped by Alex Pereira. One tough split decision loss to Jared Cannonier later, and he’s sitting a little outside. Magomedov made his stamp by winning his UFC debut over Dustin Stoltzfus in 19 seconds by KO. Strickland’s style has looked a little stiff as of late. He stands very upright. He is notoriously hard to hit, but Pereira showed it can be done. When Strickland can be outstruck by a longer fighter (Magomedov will have a two-inch reach advantage), that style stops paying dividends. Strickland will need to get in range to hit Magomedov. At that point, Magomedov can outpoint him on the feet or get it to the ground, where he should also have the advantage. Kudos to Strickland for fighting way down in the rankings, but this feels like a trap and a matchup nightmare for him.

Picture Credit: UFC