The year is less than 48 hours from being history and the UFC’s 2022 slate is long gone. This completes the first full year of Cage Calculus forecasts and, naturally, there are plenty of lessons for us to learn, in addition to the wider world of MMA.

Through the 75 fights on the UFC’s six cards over the last two months, the Cage Calculus forecast favorites went 47-27-1, bringing the forecast’s overall record since its inception to 393-262-5. All forecast projections are based on a fighter’s CC rating. You can find out how those ratings are generated HERE. The CC Editor’s Picks were 43-31-1 and the odds-on favorites according to Vegas were 52-21-2.

2022 Overall [FINAL] Standings

• Cage Calculus Forecast: 290-217-3
• Cage Calculus Editor Picks: 304-203-3
• Las Vegas Oddsmakers: 332-174-4

Without further ado, here’s what we learned from the UFC in 2022:

Life Always Reverts to the Mean

The Cage Calculus forecast typically produces win probabilities between 50-65 percent. With a truly accurate forecast, that means that the forecast favorites should only win 50-65 percent of the time. Despite the forecast’s hot start once it launched, the forecast favorites had a 57.2 percent win rate for the full year in 2022.

Accounting for the fact that there would be three draws, if you added up all of the forecasted win probabilities for every fight in 2022, the expected record for the forecast was 296-211-3, or a win percentage of 58.3. Given that, the forecast was only 1.1 percent less accurate than it would be expected to be. And, given its relative over-performance in the three months it was active in 2021, this is about to be expected. This is just another reminder that the forecast provides probabilities, not hard and fast predictions (that’s what the editor’s picks are for).

Something Has to Give on Judging

Bear in mind, it may just be the heat of the moment, but there were certainly a lot of controversial split decisions, a number of which determined who holds the title in their respective division. Either the UFC needs to do some serious educating about what judges are meant to be looking for, or MMA judging needs to be revamped (perhaps open scoring). Either way, the judging (especially in December) exemplified why this is a constant point of pain for many MMA fans.

Every Belt is Vulnerable

In 2022, it seemed like every champion that started to generate buzz about themselves being in the conversation as an all-time great suffered a defeat or an epic scare.

Brandon Moreno came into 2022 seemingly invincible. He’d defied the odds twice, avoiding defeat at the hands of Deiveson Figueiredo. But, Figueiredo returned, delivering a tight decision win in the trilogy bout. Figueiredo was expected then to resume his dominant run atop the 125 pound division, but he waited long enough that an interim title bout came about, seeing Moreno ascend to gold again.

Charles Oliveira garnered talks of eclipsing the great Khabib Nurmagomedov, running through the best at 155 pounds. However, he had his belt stripped due to a botched weight cut. Even that couldn’t stop him from submitting Justin Gaethje in the first round of their bout. Then, Khabib’s successor, Islam Makhachev came in and dominated Oliveira en route to a second round submission to take the belt off the Brazilian.

Kamaru Usman was deemed by UFC President Dana White to be the best welterweight of all-time. He had already entered the conversation as the greatest UFC fighter ever, and threatened Anderson Silva’s long-held record of 16 consecutive wins. Then, just seconds away from tying that record, Leon Edwards delivered a high kick from hell, sending Usman to the shadow realm and taking his belt in the process.

Israel Adesanya was starting to be regarded as unbeatable, given his length, fight style, and ability to keep opponents at distance. But, his old kickboxing nemesis Alex Pereira followed him to the UFC and, for a third time, stopped Adesanya and took his title. Adesanya is now a contender once again and will look to regain that belt in the first part of 2023.

Rose Namajunas had just come off two straight wins over what was believed to be the toughest challenge at strawweight. She was set to dominate and cruise through the division for years. However, she put on an absolute snoozefest in one of the worst UFC bouts of all-time against former champ Carla Esparza. Somebody had to win, and it ended up with Esparza winning her belt back. Now Zhang Weili reclaimed her belt and once again stands atop a division she failed to secure twice last year.

Valentina Shevchenko seemingly had nothing left for her at flyweight. Nobody had come close. People were already talking about a move up to bantamweight. Then along came Taila Santos, who gave the champ a run for her life. Barring an accidental clash of heads that fractured Santos’s face and questionable judges scorecards, Santos would undoubtedly be champion right now. Expect to see her get another shot at gold somewhere along the line in 2023.

A lot of people, this editor included, had thoughts about what the UFC title pictures would look like come New Year’s. It’s safe to say, nobody would have predicted quite this lineup. That’s why the sport is so exciting and, unfortunately for forecasts like this one, so unpredictable.

Experience Matters

This forecast has been accused in the past of overvaluing experience. And that is likely true. However, 2022 saw a number of wily vets hold their own against purported new standard bearers. While there will still be some questionable rankings due to the algorithm’s value on longevity, it should be noted that experienced fighters do hold their own relative to the respect they get more broadly.

Photo Credit: The Mirror