The UFC 282 main card features five bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. It will feature a ranked featherweight contest between rising contenders Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell and Ilia Topuria. It will also see the return of Darren Till to face South African contender Dricus Du Plessis. The co-main event will see Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett square off with Jared Gordon. The main event will feature a bout between former champion Jan Blachowicz (pictured above left) and Dagestani contender Magomed Ankalaev (pictured above right) for the vacant light heavyweight title. All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can find the previews for the prelim cards HERE and HERE.

[7] Bryce Mitchell vs. [11] Ilia Topuria (Men’s Featherweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: This has been described as the “hardcore fans’ main event” for UFC 282. It’s hard to argue with two undefeated contenders squaring off. Mitchell (#7 CC, #9 UFC) has been a force of nature in the ground game, dominating opponents and displaying the rarest of submission attempts. However, Topuria (#11 CC, #14 UFC) is no slouch on the ground either. In fact, the first seven fights of his pro career ended with submission wins. Topuria has recently displayed one-punch KO power, with four of his last five wins coming by knockout. Mitchell should be the slightly better grappler, but if Topuria can do enough to keep the fight standing, he has the clear advantage in striking, with Mitchell not being a KO threat at all. Given Topuria was able to mitigate grappling wizard Ryan Hall en route to a first round KO last year, expect him to employ the same playbook again.

Editor’s Pick: Topuria

Darren Till vs. [15] Dricus Du Plessis (Men’s Middleweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Till (NR CC, #10 UFC) was once expected to be a shoo-in to be middleweight champion. Now, he’s lost four of his last five, with the lone win being a razor-thin split decision. His KO power that contributed to his rise just hasn’t been there lately and he’s been outclassed. Du Plessis (#15 CC, #14 UFC), on the other hand, is undefeated in the UFC and is beginning to get some recognition as a serious contender. He’s both a KO and a submission threat. If Till doesn’t respect his power, he could wind up out on the canvas again. However, given Du Plessis’s clear advantage on the ground, expect for him to search for his tenth career submission win.

Editor’s Pick: Du Plessis

[13] Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Alex Morono (Men’s Welterweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Ponzinibbio (#13 CC, NR UFC), perhaps the most accomplished Argentinian fighter in UFC history is coming to the end of his career. He’s been plagued by a couple of tough split decisions as of late, which have likely derailed any hopes of a title shot over the horizon. However, he’s still showing he belongs and can hang with the best of the best. Morono is taking this fight on the shortest of short notices after former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler dropped out earlier this week. Ordinarily, Morono might have the edge, but given he didn’t know he was fighting until a few days ago, expect Ponzinibbio to hold serve and get back in the win column.

Editor’s Pick: Ponzinibbio

[13] Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon (Men’s Lightweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Pimblett (#13 CC, NR UFC) has not faced a murderer’s row of opponents. Gordon will certainly be the toughest thus far. Paddy “The Baddy” has lit up the screen and is becoming one of the bigger draws in the sport. However, he’ll be tested against Gordon, who has more experience and is riding some momentum himself, having won four of his last five. We’ve never seen Pimblett go to the judges, so we don’t know what his cardio looks like, especially given his wildly high weight fluctuations. Gordon, on the other hand, has good experience going the distance. Expect Pimblett to look for an early finish. If not, Gordon could piece him up in the second and third rounds. A win would likely propel Pimblett to the Cage Calculus top 10 in our lightweight rankings. Count us in as not buying the hype just yet.

Editor’s Pick: Gordon

[1] Jan Blachowicz vs. [4] Magomed Ankalaev (Men’s Light Heavyweight Championship)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: After a Jiri Prochazka (#3 CC, #1 UFC) shoulder injury forced him to drop out of UFC 282 and vacate the title, this bout became the new title fight for the now-vacant light heavyweight belt. Jan Blachowicz (#1 CC, #3 UFC) will get a chance to showcase his “legendary Polish power” once again and reclaim the belt he lost just over a year ago. Blachowicz does have nuclear power in his hands and getting caught with one hook could be the end. Dagestan’s Ankalaev (#4 CC, #4 UFC) might have something to say about that. Ankalaev has been as dominant a force as there’s been in this division since Jon Jones. He’d be a perfect 10-0 in the UFC if he had held out on tapping for one more second against Paul Craig (#9 CC, #9 UFC). Ankalaev does not display the grappling that’s typical from Dagestani fighters, but he is a master of sport in combat sambo and could cause issues for Blachowicz on the ground if he wants to avoid that power. However, Blachowicz’s ground game is very underrated. Ankalaev will likely keep distance and outskill Blachowicz, waiting for him to load up looking for a KO, which is where Ankalaev will showcase his own power, en route to a title.

Editor’s Pick: Ankalaev

Photo Credit: UFC