The UFC 281 main card features five bouts, all of which will be previewed in this post. It will feature a hugely important lightweight bout between top contenders Dustin Poirier (pictured middle left) and Michael Chandler (pictured middle right). It will also see the women’s strawweight belt be contested between current champion Carla Esparza (pictured lower left) and former champion Zhang Weili (pictured lower right). Finally, it’ll be headlined by a bout for the middleweight championship between former kickboxing rivals. The champion Israel Adesanya (pictured upper left) will face off against his old nemesis Alex Pereira (pictured upper right). All win probabilities are based on a fighter’s CC Rating and their place in the CC Rankings.

You can find the previews for both prelim cards HERE and HERE.

Dan Hooker vs. Claudio Puelles (Men’s Lightweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Hooker (NR CC, #12 UFC) is 1-4 in his last five, with some very bad luck along the way. His native New Zealand’s COVID policies have made the road even harder. His schedule’s also been a bear, having fought four top five contenders across two weight classes in a very short period of time. He’s come a long way from being a potential title contender, but he still has time to show everyone why he’s a household name at lightweight. Puelles is a rising Peruvian star, having won five in a row. What makes this streak even more special is that three of those five came by the rare kneebar submission. He is a wizard on the ground. While Hooker’s ground game might be underrated, it’s tough to say he can hang with a grappler like Puelles. He’d need to catch him and catch him early.

Editor’s Pick: Puelles

[12] Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez (Men’s Bantamweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: It has been a fantastic career for Edgar (#12 CC, #12 UFC), who won the UFC lightweight title in 2010, would later contend for the featherweight title, and then become a top contender at bantamweight. No doubt a future hall-of-famer. Now that career comes to an end with one last hurrah in Madison Square Garden. Gutierrez looks to take Edgar’s spot in the top 15, having gone 6-0-1 in his last seven. He delivered a stunning backfist KO over the dangerous Danaa Bategerel his last time out. The time to make a name for himself is now, and a name like Frankie Edgar under his belt would announce his entry to the rest of the top 15.

Editor’s Pick: Gutierrez

[2] Dustin Poirier vs. [8] Michael Chandler (Men’s Lightweight)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: It’s been a long time since Poirier (#2 CC, #2 UFC) was not a top contender at lightweight. Despite once being an interim champ, he’s yet to be undisputed champ. With a new champion reigning in Islam Makhachev, Poirier could earn yet another shot with a win. He’s widely regarded as one of the best pure boxers in the UFC. Add his seven submissions, he’s a dangerous all-around fighter. Chandler (#8 CC, #5 UFC) has fought one of the most difficult schedules of anyone in the UFC. His last three fights have come against either current or former champions and with Poirier having once been interim champ, this will make it a fourth straight. He’s certainly one of the most exciting fighters in the whole promotion. Despite his dazzling standup he’s shown, Chandler is a former wrestler and his ground game could prove to be the difference maker in this one should he choose to use it. Either way, this is an easy Fight of the Night contender.

Editor’s Pick: Chandler

[C] Carla Esparza vs. [1] Zhang Weili (Women’s Strawweight Championship)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Unfortunately, someone had to have the belt wrapped around their waist after the most recent strawweight title fight at UFC 274. In what was widely regarded as the worst fight in UFC history, Esparza prevailed by split decision over then-champion Rose Namajunas (#2 CC, #1 UFC). Four of Esparza’s last five fights have seen her win by split or majority decision. There are a handful of UFC champions who are not the Cage Calculus algorithm’s highest rated fighter in their division, but Esparza is the only one who comes in as low as fifth. However, Esparza’s elite wrestling ability does typically keep opponents on the edge, afraid to engage in the clinch. One fighter who won’t be afraid of such engagements will be Weili (#1 CC, #2 UFC). The former champ is regularly described as the best athlete in the UFC, regardless of weight class. Weili is a mauler on the feet and has been working with Olympic wrestler and former UFC double champ Henry Cejudo to improve her ground game. Weili boasts one of the highest finishing rates in the division and will be coming forward. The question will be whether or not Esparza’s wrestling is enough to stave off a finish for five rounds. Give what we’ve seen lately, I wouldn’t bank on it.

Editor’s Pick: Weili

[C] Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira (Men’s Middleweight Championship)

Subjective Spin on Objective Reality: Adesanya is on a quest to be the greatest middleweight ever. A tall task considering Anderson Silva’s legendary reign. Adesanya is one of the best strikers out there and manages to avoid damage to himself due to his length and precision. Now, he finally gets a third crack at the man who defeated him twice in professional kickboxing. The 347.3 point difference between the two fighters is the highest ever obeserved by the forecast for a UFC fight. It is important to note that the algorithm does not give Pereira (NR CC, #4 UFC) credit for his kickboxing success, as it is a different sport. So, the difference is definitely inflated. Pereira is big enough and long enough to negate Adesanya’s advantages on the feet. However, Adesanya is a different fighter than he was back then. Pereira could also get in trouble overextending, trying to land the KO punch. Admittedly, Pereira probably has more power in his hands than anyone not named Francis N’Gannou. It’s not a bad strategy. This should be a very technically sound standup fight with every blow threatening to end the fight immediately. Expect Adesanya to use what he’s learned in a longer MMA career to avoid getting slept by the Brazilian for a second time.

Editor’s Pick: Adesanya

Photo Credit: UFC