The month of November is officially upon us! September and October .

Through the 83 fights on the UFC’s seven cards over the last two months, the Cage Calculus forecast favorites went 39-44, bringing the forecast’s overall record since its inception to 346-245-4. All forecast projections are based on a fighter’s CC rating. You can find out how those ratings are generated HERE. The CC Editor’s Picks were 49-34 and the odds-on favorites according to Vegas were 53-30.

2022 Overall Standings

• Cage Calculus Forecast: 243-190-2
• Cage Calculus Editor Picks: 261-172-2
• Las Vegas Oddsmakers: 280-153-2

Without further ado, here’s what we learned from the UFC in September and October:

No One Is Invincible

This lesson keeps getting learned as another one of the forecast’s top rated fighters fell in defeat. Charles Oliveira (#1 CC, #1 UFC) had a relatively commanding 77 point gap between him and the next highest contender in the lightweight division. At the time, it was the third biggest gap between a champion (yes, we recognize he wasn’t technically champion) and number one contender on the men’s side of the UFC (behind only Alexander Volkanovski and Israel Adesanya). However, he fell the same as Kamaru Usman did before him, sliding in the overall rankings and losing his perch atop the lightweight division.

Islam Makhachev now rules the division and will likely take on the aforementioned Volkanovski, who’s seeking to become the latest champ-champ in UFC history. He has the air of legend Khabib Nurmagomedov about him now, but it’s important to remember that anyone can be defeated. As prohibitive a favorite as he may become during his reign in the forecast, there’s a reason it’s governed by probability, not absolute certainty.

Aljamain Sterling Needs Some Respect

Yes, Sterling’s three title wins have come by disqualification, a controversial split decision, and a fight where his opponent almost immediately dislocated his shoulder. It’s understandable that fans want to see a convincing win and it’s especially frustrating how long Sterling says he plans on sitting out before his next defense (presumably against former double champ, Henry Cejudo). However, Sterling now sits 105 points clear of the next-highest rated bantamweight. And with a lack of clarity beneath him, it’s becoming clear he’s separated himself from the pack. So, complain about the decisions and the time off all you want, but let it be known that Aljamain Sterling is the best 135er on the planet.

Tai Tuivasa Belongs

People were writing Tuivasa (#8 CC, #4 UFC) off ahead of his bout against Ciryl Gane (#2 CC, #1 UFC). However, Tuivasa came amazingly close to finishing the Frenchman and shocking the MMA world. He might be best known for his post-fight antics drinking beer out of shoes, but in the cage, he’s dangerous. He’ll face Sergei Pavlovich (#5 CC, #5 UFC) next in an opportunity to knock off another young, dynamic contender to get his title hopes back on track. The forecast will have him as a slight underdog in that bout, but Tuivasa’s right hand can shut down any mathematical prognostications very quickly.

Alexa Grasso Needs One More Before a Title

Grasso (#5 CC, #5 UFC) delivered the biggest win of her career in a main event bout this month. People are talking like she might be the next contender for Valentina Shevchenko’s belt. However, we first want to see Taila Santos (#1 CC, #2 UFC) get a rematch of a bout she could have easily won had she not fractured her orbital bone mid-fight. Also, there are a couple of contenders above Grasso that could provide good tests of where Grasso’s skill set is before throwing her to Shevchenko. Grasso acknowledges this as well, saying she wants one more before a title shot.

Robert Whittaker is the Number One Guy

It’s rare for a fighter to get a trilogy after having lost the first two legs. However, Whittaker (#1 CC, #1 UFC) is clearly better than the field. There are a solid 80.9 points between him and the #2 contender right now. As long as Adesanya stays on top of the lightweight division, there seems to be no man better equipped to dethrone him than “The Reaper.” We’ll see what happens later this month when Adesanya defends against his old foe, Alex Pereira (NR CC, #4 UFC). Either way, Whittaker will surely be waiting in the wings for the winner (or at least he ought to be).

Under-the-Radar Names to Watch From September/October Fights

These fighters delivered solid wins and should be getting more respect in UFC rankings pictures than they are based on their CC Rating and recent performance. These fighters could be primed for big wins up the ladder soon.

• Jailton Almeida
• Norma Dumont
• Gregory Rodrigues
• Gillian Robertson
• Brendan Allen
• Roman Dolidze

Photo Credit: CBS Sports